CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. (WVIR) – An odd-numbered year typically means a break from elections. But not in Virginia.
Virginia and New Jersey are the only states electing a new governor in 2025, which means eyes are on the Commonwealth as we head into the new year.
Virginians will vote for a new governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general, among a few other positions.
“Partisanship being what it is, our election cycle is going to be driven, not completely, but in large part, by Donald Trump,” said Larry Sabato, Director of the UVA Center for Politics.
Sabato says the gubernatorial race could hinge on how popular—or unpopular—President Donald Trump is with Virginians in the coming months.
In past races, the Commonwealth has voted against the White House for governor, with a recent exception being Democrat Terry McAuliffe’s 2013 victory during Barack Obama’s presidency.
“It has been very difficult, though not impossible, for the incumbent president’s party to win the Virginia governorship,” Sabato said.
The Republican nominee, he says, will find it difficult to evade responsibility for any mistakes the party makes in Washington, particularly now that their party holds majorities in both the House and Senate.
With current Attorney General Jason Miyares running for reelection, Sabato says Lieutenant Governor Winsome-Earle Sears is the front-runner for the Republican nomination. She will likely face off against 7th District Representative Abigail Spanberger, who has been named a clear favorite.
Though former 5th District Representative Denver Riggleman has flirted with the prospect of running for either the governor or lieutenant governor seat as an Independent, Sabato says he is unlikely to make it very far.
“He is not going to break through on the hyper partisanship we have here today,” Sabato says.
Four Democrats and one Republican have announced their bids for lieutenant governor. Though it’s possible to have a split office, Sabato says we are almost certain to see a governor and lieutenant governor elected from the same party.
“People have chosen up sides…and they just don’t deviate from their party,” Sabato said. “They vote from their party from the top of the ticket to the bottom of the ticket.”
In the legislature, thin Democratic majorities in the House of Delegates and State Senate are also on the line next week in a few special elections. Two seats are open in solidly blue districts in Loudoun County, and one in the solidly red 10th Senate district, which includes Fluvanna and most of Louisa County.
If Republicans win all three districts, Democrats will lose their control of the state House and Senate.
“These are special elections coming quickly after the new year,” said Kyle Kondik with the UVA Center for Politics. “Turnout can be kind of low, those are the kinds of situations where you can’t rule out an upset. But, again, it would be a gigantic upset.”
As for Governor Glenn Youngkin, Sabato says he has his eyes set on Washington.
“He clearly has the presidential bug,” Sabato said. “He has had it for his whole governorship, and even before then. That’s a hard bug to get rid of.”
One thing Sabato is confident about is that the governor’s race will be between two women, for the first time in state history.
“It is Sears versus Spanberger,” Sabato said. “One of those two will be the next governor.”
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