* Cyberwarfare. Could affect infrastructure, commerce, banking, etc.
* Misinformation. Russian troll farms will be out in force.
* Energy prices. This could be nasty. Prices were already up, but if supplies to the EU single market from Russia are affected that will knock-on to us.
* Investment volatility. Stocks will be pretty spicy.
* “Farewell to McMafia money”. Probably not going to affect you.
* More expensive grocery bills. We get lots of wheat, seeds, oils, fertiliser etc from Ukraine and Russia.
* Mortgage-rate rises. All the above increases inflation, so rate rises are likely to be needed.
* Slower post-pandemic recovery.
* Another migration crisis. More refugees for the far-right to screech about. Also, paradoxically, fewer migrant workers and a worsening of our worker shortage especially in the agricultural sector.
* New age of nuclear anxiety. Much stress (and what the Torygraph didn’t mention, likely the Tories using this as an excuse to pass sweeping new surveillance laws).
Oil over $100/barrel.
And 20-25% of global wheat exports volume comes from these two countries.
This is the stuff that leads to serious civil disorder – mostly in poor/fragile states, but you have to wonder how much more inflation even places like the UK can take.
That you stop voting Brexit and show some solidarity with Europe.
Well, this sucks, now is not a good time being disconnected from Europe…
How about lifting the brexit for optimize trade and all?
People in the U.K. need support since provision is in danger.
Home front? Torygraph is starting to condition their readership for a real shooting war.
6 comments
[Unpaywalled](https://archive.is/GyHil).
The TL;DR is:
* Cyberwarfare. Could affect infrastructure, commerce, banking, etc.
* Misinformation. Russian troll farms will be out in force.
* Energy prices. This could be nasty. Prices were already up, but if supplies to the EU single market from Russia are affected that will knock-on to us.
* Investment volatility. Stocks will be pretty spicy.
* “Farewell to McMafia money”. Probably not going to affect you.
* More expensive grocery bills. We get lots of wheat, seeds, oils, fertiliser etc from Ukraine and Russia.
* Mortgage-rate rises. All the above increases inflation, so rate rises are likely to be needed.
* Slower post-pandemic recovery.
* Another migration crisis. More refugees for the far-right to screech about. Also, paradoxically, fewer migrant workers and a worsening of our worker shortage especially in the agricultural sector.
* New age of nuclear anxiety. Much stress (and what the Torygraph didn’t mention, likely the Tories using this as an excuse to pass sweeping new surveillance laws).
Oil over $100/barrel.
And 20-25% of global wheat exports volume comes from these two countries.
[Food price index still very high](https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/).
[Fertiliser prices still around all time highs](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-23/russia-ukraine-tensions-spur-fears-of-fertilizer-shortages-food-price-hikes). And [Russia produces two thirds of the world’s ammonium nitrate](https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/agriculture/020222-russia-bans-ammonium-nitrate-exports-until-april-to-support-domestic-farmers).
Arab Spring 2 when?
This is the stuff that leads to serious civil disorder – mostly in poor/fragile states, but you have to wonder how much more inflation even places like the UK can take.
That you stop voting Brexit and show some solidarity with Europe.
Well, this sucks, now is not a good time being disconnected from Europe…
How about lifting the brexit for optimize trade and all?
People in the U.K. need support since provision is in danger.
Home front? Torygraph is starting to condition their readership for a real shooting war.