What war in Ukraine could mean for you on the home front

6 comments
  1. The TL;DR is:

    * Cyberwarfare. Could affect infrastructure, commerce, banking, etc.
    * Misinformation. Russian troll farms will be out in force.
    * Energy prices. This could be nasty. Prices were already up, but if supplies to the EU single market from Russia are affected that will knock-on to us.
    * Investment volatility. Stocks will be pretty spicy.
    * “Farewell to McMafia money”. Probably not going to affect you.
    * More expensive grocery bills. We get lots of wheat, seeds, oils, fertiliser etc from Ukraine and Russia.
    * Mortgage-rate rises. All the above increases inflation, so rate rises are likely to be needed.
    * Slower post-pandemic recovery.
    * Another migration crisis. More refugees for the far-right to screech about. Also, paradoxically, fewer migrant workers and a worsening of our worker shortage especially in the agricultural sector.
    * New age of nuclear anxiety. Much stress (and what the Torygraph didn’t mention, likely the Tories using this as an excuse to pass sweeping new surveillance laws).

  2. Oil over $100/barrel.

    And 20-25% of global wheat exports volume comes from these two countries.

    [Food price index still very high](https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/).

    [Fertiliser prices still around all time highs](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-23/russia-ukraine-tensions-spur-fears-of-fertilizer-shortages-food-price-hikes). And [Russia produces two thirds of the world’s ammonium nitrate](https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/agriculture/020222-russia-bans-ammonium-nitrate-exports-until-april-to-support-domestic-farmers).

    Arab Spring 2 when?

    This is the stuff that leads to serious civil disorder – mostly in poor/fragile states, but you have to wonder how much more inflation even places like the UK can take.

  3. Well, this sucks, now is not a good time being disconnected from Europe…

    How about lifting the brexit for optimize trade and all?

    People in the U.K. need support since provision is in danger.

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