Russian troops reduce use of armoured vehicles in areas of active combat, likely due to significant losses of equipment and depletion of Soviet supplies – ISW

10 comments

1. Highlights:

   *Ukrainian military sources have recently observed Russian forces employing fewer armoured vehicles and conducting fewer mechanised assaults on the Kurakhove front following significant vehicle losses in October and November 2024.*

   *The spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade operating on the Kurakhove front stated on 3 January that Russian forces have shifted to primarily using infantry for assaults in the area over the past few weeks, with armoured vehicles now being used mainly as fire support for infantry operations.*

   *The New York Times reported on 31 December that a Ukrainian lieutenant colonel noted Russian forces’ ***increasing use of electric scooters, motorcycles, and all-terrain vehicles*** (ATVs) during assaults in eastern Ukraine, possibly as part of ongoing efforts to compensate for armoured vehicle losses.*

   *Russian forces may be using fewer armoured vehicles on the Kurakhove and Pokrovsk fronts if the Russian military is struggling to resupply frontline units and formations and if the military command is reluctant to withdraw units for rest and reconstitution, fearing further delays to Russian advances in high-priority frontline areas.*

   ***Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed or damaged over 3,000 Russian tanks and nearly 9,000 armoured vehicles in 2024***

2. Although we are a long way off, this sounds promising for the future.

3. Russia is making a few new vehicles, but most of their “new” stock is actually from their storage yards. Unfortunately for them, the newest and best condition vehicles were taken, leaving only the old and worst condition ones. The cost/benefit ratio of doing so keeps going down.

   Russia is reaching the end of their ability to fight. It will take them a long time to recover from this catastrophic war.

4. https://youtu.be/K8CcuVCDEUw?si=X5In_–aElptyBsu gives an in-depth count of situation with
   Russian tanks in storage.

5. I’ve actually made a similar observation. I decided to do some statistical analysis of Russia’s hardware losses according to Ukraine. When I calculated the manpower loss ratio to tank and IFV losses, the ratio has been increasing, showing that over time more men have died per tank and IFV. However, when I combined tanks, IFVs and “car and cistern” categories, the ratio remained rather steady. At least for me this indicates that Russia has been forced to substitute their armoured vehicles with either lightly armoured or unarmoured vehicles as the war goes on.

6. He wants to save some to guard his bunker

7. I wonder how much new equipment Russia is actually producing. We obviously know that they are producing artillery shells at least. But how much of all the other equipment they have brought to the front since 2022, was actually produced after the war began?

   Because if you have been following the count on old soviet stockpiles, you would know that tanks and IFV supply is approaching the point where there is almost nothing left to take from old soviet supplies.

   What will happen when there is 0 left to refurbish? Are they producing 25 tanks a month? or 50? or 5?

8. Get fucked Russia, what a joke military.

9. With all the Russian military equipment and personnel loses, soon another invasion will come and Russia will have nothing to defend itself.

10. So here is my question. If they have scaled back equipment use on active fronts have they already striped equipment from less active fronts as well or are they in the process of doing so.

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