Rams vs. Vikings prediction, analysis, and best prop bets

A rather chalky Wild Card Weekend—redeemed in part by a fantastic three-seed-six-seed Sunday Night Football matchup that saw Jayden Daniels’ Commanders beat Mike Evans’ Buccaneers—pivots to a fairly eccentric Monday Night capstone in Arizona. Neither team is from Arizona. This isn’t a neutral-site sort of game. But, because of the horrific wildfires in California, this game’s been moved. And, though it is peanuts compared to the real-world implications, the reality is: the Rams no longer have home field advantage.

Let’s take a look at what the Rams, as two-point-five point underdogs, need to do to win this game, and whether or not it’s likely to shake their way.

Analysis

It’s Matthew Stafford’s time to turn it around

I covered this at length in my 2025 Playoff Betting Preview: Los Angeles Rams, but Matthew Stafford’s play has been atrocious in December of this year, despite his four wins during the calendar month:

Let’s talk about the Cardinals game, shall we? Matthew Stafford was 17 of 32 passing for 189 yards and zero touchdowns. And check out this damning tidbit of info from NFL Next Gen Stats re. Stafford’s time-to-throw in this game.

It was clear McVay was intent on getting Stafford more passing attempts in the first half during their Week 17 game against Arizona. Stafford ended the first half with 21 of his 32 total attempts. It just didn’t look good, however. And his decline in efficiency has been real. In Weeks 10-14, among quarterbacks with at least 175 dropbacks, Matthew Stafford ranked fourth in the league in EPA/dropback. In Weeks 15-17, however, he ranks 26th in that same stat. A significant and gobsmacking regression, make no mistake.

Which is to say: the Rams need Stafford to return to his midseason form in order to have any hope at being able to keep up with a Commanders offense which compares quite well to Buffalo’s in both rush and pass EPA/play (see the graph above). The problem for the Rams right now, unfortunately, is at quarterback.

Getting Stafford back in rhythm against Minnesota

In my Playoff Preview, I wrote how there might be a similarity between Stafford’s success against the Buffalo Bills in Week 14, and similar success in the galvanizing Week 8 win over the Vikings:

How can the Rams get Stafford back in rhythm? The Buffalo Blueprint, as I like to call it. Matthew Stafford was 16/20 on throws against zone coverage with a 126.1 passer rating in that game. He averaged 10.4 yards per attempt. Minnesota deploys zone coverage on 74.0% of opponent dropbacks, good for 12th-most in the NFL. In the game against Minnesota, Stafford was 20/28 against their zone coverage for 199 yards and a 100.1 passer rating. His average yards per attempt clocked in at 7.9. Against Buffalo, he only completed six passes throughout the game when he was under pressure, so his offensive line’s ability to give him time in the pocket is going to be key.

Seeing as we’re evaluating Stafford’s current play where it’s at (again, 26th in the league in EPA/dropback over the last five weeks), the Rams might only need him to play an average-to-slightly-above-average game to pull this game off. Kyren Williams does enough work on his own. The defense bends and sometimes breaks but also sometimes breaks the game in Los Angeles’ direction.

Better efficiency for Stafford means more time of possession, a better-rested defense, less reliance on special teams play—all things we’ve seen be absolutely essential so far in this first round of the 2025 NFL playoffs.

Sean McVay vs. Kevin O’Connell

This might be the game’s marquee matchup, simply because the quarterback duel between Matthew Stafford and Sam Darnold isn’t exactly the loaded rivalry, here. The quarterback advantage—especially when it comes to playoff experience—tilts far in the Rams favor, but balances out a bit when you compare Stafford and Darnold.

Even then, however, when you look at their advanced efficiency metrics starting Week 6 (which discounts the Rams’ 1-4 start), they’re quite similar:

Admittedly, Darnold has a much more robust sample size of dropbacks. But where Darnold really smokes Stafford is in his well-above-league-average 3.9 completion percentage over expectation (CPOE). We know, as described earlier, that Stafford’s CPOE took a nosedive in December. Darnold had his slumps during this span, too, so this feels an accurate comparison: two inconsistent quarterbacks with high ceilings but ugly floors.

Anyways—coaching, though? That’s a bit more interesting, here. O’Connell was famously the Rams’ offensive coordinator during their Super Bowl LVI campaign. He’s an absolute stud in Minnesota, having turned the franchise around from long-standing mediocrity to a legitimate contender since he was hired in 2022.

So—to whom does the coaching advantage go? I’m going to believe it’s McVay, here, even in 2024, when it’s felt, at times, like he’s lost his edge a bit. Something still puzzles me about that game at New England that the Rams didn’t just blast through. I digress: Last time LA’s healthy starters came off a BYE, they faced the Vikings within four days for Week 8’s Thursday Night Football. Seeing as the Rams played the lowly Raiders in Week 7, and the Rams were in such a position that they needed go on an absolute white-hot run, I’m a bit convinced the Rams were preparing for the Vikings in look-ahead fashion after Week 6. And McVay handled O’Connell and Brian Flores’s elite defense then, and managed to contain Minnesota’s wideouts just enough.

Best prop bet to consider for Rams vs. Vikings

I think Stafford’s recent poor play has bottomed out his passing touchdown market far too much. Right now, his passing touchdown line on DraftKings Sportsbook is at -125 odds for 2+ touchdowns, and I’m snatching that with at least a full unit. When Stafford’s been at his hottest (Weeks 8-14)—which the Rams will need tonight, even if it happens in desperation mode—he only failed to reach this number once.

If the Rams win this game, it’ll be because Stafford converts in the red zone. If they lose, they still might force him to throw enough to hit two TDs through the air.

Best bet: Matthew Stafford 2+ passing touchdowns (-125)

Prediction and Outcome

We’ve really only focused on the Rams in this article, and that’s because, on paper and in the back of everyone’s minds, it feels like the Vikings don’t belong in this game. Everyone keeps pointing to the 14 wins, as if they’re a foregone conclusion that a 14-win team in a Wild Card game should absolutely steam roll its opponent. Even if the opponent is one to whom they’ve already lost.

And, simply, the Vikings will win this game if their defense does precisely what it’s done all season long: turn the ball over. That’s possible against a bit of a wayward Matthew Stafford, who, even at his best, is a bit pick-prone. Kyren Williams, too, has had his fair share of fumbling issues throughout his career; his workload will only increase with Blake Corum out for the year with a broken arm.

If the Rams fail to score early, which they’ve done all year, have trouble finishing sacks, and, on top of all that, turn the ball over more than once, it’s game over. But Darnold is susceptible to letting four-man rushes settle into play-compromising pressures.

But I’m choosing to believe we’ll get a magical sports moment for a city that needs it. The Chargers—Justin Herbert, really—flubbed that on Saturday. Now it’s on McVay and Stafford to give Los Angeles something to smile about, even for a second. The offense hasn’t been this healthy since before Puka hurt his knee in training camp.

Outcome: Los Angeles 28, Minnesota 24

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.