Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) has limped through nearly four years of government. Having ousted Angela Merkel’s Union (an alliance between the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) and the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU)) in 2021, things could have – should have – gone better for them. A grand reset, a new era, strong leadership? It was just a dream. The coalition of the SPD, the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) (Germany’s free market Lib Dems) fell in December. And following a vote of no confidence, Chancellor Scholz had to call a snap election.
There is trouble brewing for the incumbents, particularly those of the liberal centre. Fresh forecasts from YouGov have revealed just how bad things are looking for the Social Democrats and the Free Democratic Party, with both the far right and the right on course to win big.
The Union looks likely to return to the Bundestag in February as the leading party, with over one third of the seats. This compares to 27 per cent of the seats in 2021. So an increase, absolutely. But not an overwhelming one.
The SPD looks likely to fall from 28 per cent of the seats to 18 per cent – a ten point fall in representation. Their vote, too, looks likely to amount to around only 16 per cent.
And not only that, but the SPD cannot even be sure of coming second this election. YouGov suspects they may end up beaten by the far right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, who are on course to pick up almost a quarter (23 per cent) of the seats up in the Bundestag, with a not insubstantial fifth of the vote.
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The FDP, meanwhile, look at risk of crashing out of parliament altogether. They are on course to pick up 4.5 per cent of the vote. That does not guarantee them seats on the proportional top-up system the Bundestag uses. If borne out, it will mean the FDP will go from 11 per cent of the Bundestag, to zero per cent.
Germany’s Left Party, with roots in the old East German ruling party, also looks likely to crash out of the Bundestag for the first time. Reliant on votes now gobbled up by both the far right and an insurgent anti-immigrant party (Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance or BSW) their future is uncertain. Right now they are on course to pick up just 2.9 per cent of the national vote to the BSW’s 6 per cent.
In the working class communities across much of Europe the far right is succeeding, and the SPD are increasingly irrelevant.
The end result of this election, however, might mean little change. The Greens look likely to emerge unscathed with little shift in support. And so, to the next German government – a Union chancellor, almost certainly. But to govern with whom? The SPD and Union could make up more than half the Bundestag, so a grand coalition may win the day. But after an election where anti-immigrant and radical parties could rack up around 30 per cent of the legislature, what would “no change from us” say to the voters?