Armenian intelligence has assessed the probability of
large-scale military action by Azerbaijan against Armenia in 2025
as low, according to a recent report by Armenia’s Foreign
Intelligence Service, Azernews reports.
The report, which examines key risks and threats for the year,
underscores that while a full-scale war is deemed unlikely,
localized skirmishes and escalations remain plausible. According to
Armenian media, the analysis highlights that ongoing border
delimitation and demarcation processes could play a role in
reducing the likelihood of broader confrontations.
However, the report also warns that the absence of a concrete
peace treaty increases the risk of sporadic clashes. Bilateral
negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan are noted as the most
viable avenue for reducing tensions, but delays in normalizing
relations or signing peace agreements may lead to prolonged
uncertainty and heightened risks.
The report further emphasizes Azerbaijan’s continued focus on
bolstering its military capabilities in 2025. This includes
advancements in mobile units, reserve training, and the acquisition
of new weapons and military equipment, signalling its ongoing
commitment to maintaining a robust defence posture.
The findings suggest that while the potential for a large-scale
conflict remains minimal, the region’s stability depends heavily on
diplomatic efforts and mutual commitments to de-escalation.
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