Will Europe put ‘boots on the ground’ in Ukraine?

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1. Donald Trump’s return to the White House reignited interest in the idea, first floated a year ago by France’s Emmanuel Macron. At the time, it was ruled out as impracticable and too risky. But since then, Ukraine’s military has struggled. The prospect of Nato membership has dwindled.

   As a result, on-off talks have resumed about how western troops, specifically European forces, could help sustain the ceasefire that Trump hopes to broker with Moscow. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that if Europe is serious about providing an effective deterrent, 200,000 troops would be needed, at a “minimum”.

   Talks are meanwhile under way among European allies, with British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte expected to discuss the issue at an “informal retreat” hosted by the EU on February 3.

   So far, only the Baltic states have signalled support for the idea, as long as it is a broader mission with other allies. Poland has ruled out sending troops and insists that it should not be Nato’s border states with Russia that are involved with troops on the ground in Ukraine.

   Germany’s outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz was fiercely opposed to the deployment of German troops in Ukraine. Friedrich Merz, the Christian-Democratic leader likely to become chancellor after elections on February 23, has expressed support for Ukraine, but has not explicitly endorsed the idea of deploying troops.

2. Russia will never agree. They want a neutral/demilitarized Ukraine on a very sensitive part of their border.

   We need to look at 1991-2013 to figure out how to get back to peace between Russia and Ukraine.

3. Wait- this war is still going on? I thought Trump fixed it around 12 pm on Tuesday 🤔

4. Any peace deal will have to include the long term presence of European/NATO forces in Ukraine as peace keepers/deterrence. Otherwise you are just giving Russia an opportunity to regroup and try again when ready. Poland is correct, it shouldn’t include NATO members that border Russia. They need to focus on their own defense.

5. The French reportedly have contingency plans to send over an expeditionary force of 25k soldiers.
   The European public are deeply frightened of any escalation. And no politician wants to admit it could happen.

   It could be like Tranistria 2.0 where you’ve a permanent fudge solution where an unrecognized statelet lives forever in limbo. It’s unlikely Ukraine will regain the Donbar bar some military miracle.

   This war is pretty unprecedented in how it could spiral in any direction.

   If Trump cuts off support in the next 100 days we could see a swift conclusion.

6. Are they covertly there :- YES

   will any country send army officially :- NO

   That will be declaration of WW3

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