Wow! Orbans Fidesz is trailing Tisza in Hungary by 9%! Change is coming.

https://i.redd.it/5srigq66itee1.jpeg

by gayroma

23 comments

  2. Unfortunately it is more than a year until the next Hungarian election.

  3. 106 out of 199 seats in the parliament are single member first past the post and thus opinion polls aren’t fully reliable. Orban won 54% of vote but 68% of seats in 2022.

  4. Lot of people is afraid of someone is preparing a nice cup of tea in Moscow, with just a drop of polonium… as a courtesy from Orban’s comrade.

  5. TikTok isn’t banned in Hungary so prepare for surprises

  7.  ‘Those who *vote* decide nothing. Those who count the *vote* decide everything.’ Don’t get your hopes up just yet.

  9. And the countryside which due to electoral laws has a disproportionate portion of seats leans for Orban against all odds thanks to Orban’s propaganda network

  10. This is how Bernie can still win. (:

    On a serious note, though: assuming Tisza wins, having a Tisza-Fidesz duopoly means Fidesz will be back as soon as Tisza fucks up. And fuck up they will, because all politicians eventually do fuck up.

    Would be good for the other parties to grow, too, just for this reason.

  11. I’d withhold excitement. The crappy European leaders seem to have a gift for clawing their ways to victories.

  12. Fidesz doesnt stand a chance of winning the next election if something dramatic dident happen, that already dident happend within the EU.

    Enough people got tried of nothing great happening in Hungarian economy, some of Fidesz pin points is non usable any longer so it wont work to scare people with that, and many Hungarian got tired of beeing seen as the traitors within the EU and acctually doesnt care to much about Putin either.

    Trump already won the election and wont be needing no Orban anymore. This ofcource will put Orban in the backseat and he wont be on the Central stage anymore.

    Russias war in Ukraine would either have came to an end or Trump would have decided to take side against Putin rather hard. Trump either needs an end to the war or he would be needed to fight Putin. One of those. If he will be forced to fight, Hungary would be marginalized even more by the west.

    Whatever happens there, Orban wont have anything left to pin on to. So Fidesz is screwd. Germany will not go AfD either so they wont get any support from there.

    Hungary, like Poland, will get “normalized” for sure.

    Orban will not be able to cheat, even if he got power of some public institutions and laws right now. It’s impossible within the EU.

    If anything, it could be a hugh Scandal within the opposition that made them non grata. Otherwise those numbers will continue to decreace for Fidesz

  15. Unfortunately, due to the particularities of our voting system, this poll doesn’t mean much.

    We cast two votes on election day, one for the country-wide party list and one for the representative of our voting district. The poll might simulate the results of the country-wide list, but it can’t simulate the district votes, there are too many variables there. What if Tisza can’t find a reliable candidate for that district? What if a popular figure runs as an independent but ends up joining Fidesz in the parliament? And as a comment above says, 106 out of 199 seats are determined this way.

    Also, the voting districts are not equally sized. Countryside districts have fewer people, and Tisza is more popular in medium sized and bigger places, where proportionally more people are needed to elect a representative. And the districts are gerrymandered to hell.

    We also have a first past the post system, so the representatives are elected even if they don’t have at least 50% of the votes, and we also have “winner compesantion”, which means that “meaningless votes” e.g. votes that were cast for a representative that didn’t win *and also the difference of votes between the winner candidate and the second one, because technically those votes weren’t needed to win the election,* are added to the winner party’s countrywide list. Fidesz got 6 extra seats because of this on the last election.

    Hungarian minorities in the pre-Trianon territories who are citizens are also like 95% Fidesz voters because Fidesz supports them while the previous government didn’t. It’s not much but it can add an extra seat or two.

    There’s also a special representative of the german minority (technically any minority can send a representative, but they are the only ones who have enough registered voters for it), who usually sides with Fidesz.

    During the last elections, almost every poll was showing a definitive opposition victory, and Fidesz ended up with its biggest win ever. So look at every poll like this with a pinch of salt.

  16. Happy to see!

    Just a question. Is it a “good” party or is it just not as bad as Fidesz? I see that they are part of EPP group so i guess they are not that bad…

    Would love to hear from someone more informed on Hungarian politics 🙂

  18. While I understand anything is better than Orban, how does Tisza and their leader compare?

  20. Ukraine must be absolutely thrilled.

    One major factor helping Tisza is the fact that people who support Peter Magyar are fiercely loyal to him and see him as a sort of god-like figure (in the same way much of Trump’s supporters are fiercely loyal to him and refuse to believe anything negative about him)

  21. sadly, polls mean nothing, the outcome could be totally different.

  23. From their membership in the EPP faction, I gather Tisza is a conservative/center-right party?

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