Books on the rise and fall of empires, the life of Elon Musk, and a fictional next world war offer … [+] powerful lessons for leaders.

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Geopolitics in 2025 feels like a Dickensian paradox.

On one hand, Hans Rosling’s Factfulness Ten Reasons We’re Wrong About the World—and Why Things Are Better Than You Think reminds us of extraordinary progress—longer life expectancy, plummeting infant mortality, and a massive reduction in global poverty. Access to education has also dramatically improved overall, including for women, alongside decades of unprecedented global growth and innovation.

On the other hand, the post-World War ll order is unraveling. Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, calls it the “G-Zero” world—one where no single power or group of powers is both willing and able to set a global agenda and maintain international order—risking an extraordinary level of geopolitical instability.

In my 30 years in business, I have never had so many conversations with executives about geopolitics and its implications for global business, whether it is threats from tariffs, inflation, or rising interest rates, or the increasing possibility of large-scale conflict.

How can leaders make sense of this volatile landscape? Reading can help. These three books—spanning historical nonfiction, biography, and future-based fiction—stretch our understanding of the world and the ways in which it is changing.

Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio

How can we imagine what the future holds if we don’t understand the past? In the bestselling Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed or Fail (Simon & Schuster, 2021), Ray Dalio, author and co-founder of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, finds patterns in the rise and fall of global powers over the past 500 years.

Dalio explores how economic, political, and social cycles combine to shift global power over time. Anchoring his findings in rich historical data, he looks first at the Dutch and British empires, describing their rise through innovation, education, and strong governance, and subsequent decline, fueled by debt, inequality, and internal conflict. His descriptions of the way monetary policies and reserve currencies can help shape the global order—both as tools for growth and sources of crisis—are particularly illuminating.

The book’s final third zeroes in on U.S.-China relations, central to the current, tense global order. The book provides a stark reminder of the strong leadership and diplomacy that will be required to successfully navigate this complicated relationship during the years to come. Based in data and logic, Dalio’s conclusions are sometimes dense but nevertheless compelling, offering thoughtful ways to understand and manage today’s global turbulence.

Elon Musk by Walter Isaacson

History is shaped not only by megatrends and systems but also by individuals. As the world’s wealthiest person and a sort of “adviser-in-chief” to President Donald Trump, Elon Musk wields tremendous influence, love him or hate him.

Masterful biographer Walter Isaacson has also written about Steve Jobs, Leonardo da Vinci, and Benjamin Franklin, among others. In Elon Musk (Simon & Schuster, 2023), Isaacson delves into the businessman’s improbable life story, tracing it from Musk’s relatively humble but quite troubled childhood in South Africa to his current roles as CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, and chairman of X (formerly Twitter). Isaacson paints a portrait of a complicated man with vivid stories and experiences, offering a view into how Musk thinks and why he behaves as he does.

People will draw their own conclusions, but there’s value to understanding what drives Musk and the decisions he makes, the same way that in basketball, you play the person, not the ball. This principle applies to other influential figures shaping the global dynamics of our day, and is why I always like to include biographies in my own reading and in my recommendations.

2034: A Novel of the Next World War by Elliot Ackerman and Retired Admiral James G. Stavridis

I first met Admiral Stavridis in Zurich about 10 years ago. He had recently retired as NATO Supreme Allied Commander. At the end of his remarks about geopolitics and global security, an audience member asked for Stavridis’ recommendation for reducing the risk of global conflict. His surprising answer was to read more fiction. Stavridis noted that reading builds empathy, and empathy reduces conflict between individuals, communities, and nations. Most of the global population is not internationally mobile, so the most accessible and practical way to build understanding and empathy is through reading.

In 2021, he published his own work of fiction, 2034: A Novel of the Next World War (Penguin Books). Stavridis and co-author Elliot Ackerman, a decorated Marine veteran and author nominated for a National Book Award, take us away from the historical view and into an imagined future that feels highly realistic and all too possible.

The conflict begins in the South China Sea and escalates into a series of tit-for-tat actions and reactions that lead to unintended consequences for all.

The novel, which highlights how power struggles, miscalculations, and technological overreach can lead to catastrophic outcomes, feels like a modern enactment of the Thucydides Trap. The term is credited to American political scientist Graham T. Allison but refers to a comment made more than 2,400 years ago by Greek historian and military commander Thucydides in the History of the Peloponnesian War. Thucydides believed the path to the war was set when leading power Sparta began to decline and was threatened by ascending power Athens. The rise of the No. 2 is what Allison was referring to when he coined the term. Harvard tested Alison’s hypothesis and found that, unfortunately, over the centuries, about three-quarters of the time war is the outcome.

For leaders, Stavridis’ book emphasizes the importance of restraint, collaboration, and foresight.

Geopolitics is no longer just for politicians. It’s a critical dimension of global business strategy. By expanding their perspective through these three books’ lenses—history, leadership, and speculative futures—executives will be better equipped to tackle the challenges of today’s interconnected world.

Wishing you fruitful reading in 2025!