Let’s remember how crappy EIA is at predicting solar growth. And hope for the best.
So we are back down to linear growth then?
Ok. Catch our breath and back to exponential growth in a few.
Can someone explain why new commercial (warehouse style, Lowe’s, walmart, amazon, chicken houses) can’t be legislated to have solar installed so it’s out of sight out of mind and making good use of otherwise useless space?
We’re not even one month in to 2025
Yep, this makes sense since it isn’t economically viable to install solar on homes now electrical companies how manipulated their pricing to limit the benefit of generating your own power
This is horrible news
How long can the industry survive if China imposed an embargo the same as the US did on ASML imports into China.
“In its Short-Term Energy Outlook report, EIA forecasted that the U.S. will install 26 GW in 2025, falling roughly 30% from the record year in 2024. What’s more, EIA forecasted that the United States will install only 22 GW in 2026, potentially indicating a shrinking industry after fifteen years of double-digit growth.
The forecast from EIA diverges significantly from expectations by Wood Mackenzie and SEIA. The two groups expect the U.S. will install at least 43 GW in 2025 onward, reaching nearly 450 GW of cumulative installations by the end of 2029.”
So two other groups disagree, and have more optimistic estimates
In short, everyone thinks a significant amount of solar will be installed in 2025. Two groups think more than in 2024, and one group thinks less than 2024.
8 comments
Let’s remember how crappy EIA is at predicting solar growth. And hope for the best.
So we are back down to linear growth then?
Ok. Catch our breath and back to exponential growth in a few.
Can someone explain why new commercial (warehouse style, Lowe’s, walmart, amazon, chicken houses) can’t be legislated to have solar installed so it’s out of sight out of mind and making good use of otherwise useless space?
We’re not even one month in to 2025
Yep, this makes sense since it isn’t economically viable to install solar on homes now electrical companies how manipulated their pricing to limit the benefit of generating your own power
This is horrible news
How long can the industry survive if China imposed an embargo the same as the US did on ASML imports into China.
“In its Short-Term Energy Outlook report, EIA forecasted that the U.S. will install 26 GW in 2025, falling roughly 30% from the record year in 2024. What’s more, EIA forecasted that the United States will install only 22 GW in 2026, potentially indicating a shrinking industry after fifteen years of double-digit growth.
The forecast from EIA diverges significantly from expectations by Wood Mackenzie and SEIA. The two groups expect the U.S. will install at least 43 GW in 2025 onward, reaching nearly 450 GW of cumulative installations by the end of 2029.”
So two other groups disagree, and have more optimistic estimates
In short, everyone thinks a significant amount of solar will be installed in 2025. Two groups think more than in 2024, and one group thinks less than 2024.
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