We all thought it was going swimmingly well. Just when it seemed like that at long last peace had come to Gaza, it now looks as if the wheels might be coming off the ceasefire agreement before the ink is dry.
As a reminder, Israel and Hamas approved a ceasefire-hostage agreement on 15 th January this year. Mediators from the United States, Qatar, and Egypt were to monitor the ceasefire, which took effect (eventually, after a few hiccups) on Sunday 19th January.
The agreement outlines three phases; during the first phase, which will last for 42 days beginning on 19 th January, Hamas must commit to releasing 33 hostages.
The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) will gradually withdraw from the central Gaza Strip to an 800-metre-deep buffer zone along the Gaza Strip’s eastern and northern boundaries during the first phase.
Reuters and the Washington DC-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that “Israel will release 30 Palestinian prisoners for every Israeli civilian and 50 Palestinian prisoners for every female Israeli soldier that Hamas releases.”
Israel will also allow displaced Gazans to return to the northern Gaza Strip during this phase.
Thereafter, Israel and Hamas will start negotiations on the 16 th day of the ceasefire – in other words by the beginning of next month – to secure the release of the remaining Israeli hostages, a complete IDF withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, and a permanent ceasefire.
Finally, the third phase of the ceasefire reportedly includes provisions for the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip supervised by Egypt, Qatar, and the United Nations.
That’s a long way off for the moment, and I think we can assume that if negotiations for the second or third phases of the ceasefire fail, the fighting will resume.
So, how’s it going so far? As well as might be expected is probably the trite answer. The first groups of Israeli hostages have been released from the evil grip of Hamas, and Palestinian civilians in Gaza are beginning to make their way back to their homes. God alone knows what awaits them there.
In return Israel has released nearly 300 Palestinian prisoners, and is expected to release 1,904 in total during the first phase of the ceasefire.
The majority of these prisoners were members of Palestinian militia groups, including Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and Fatah, and had taken part in attacks that targeted Israeli civilians and soldiers in the past.
In accordance with the phase one deal, the IDF withdrew from areas in the northern and southern Gaza Strip and deployed in the IDF-designated buffer zone along the Gaza Strip’s northeastern boundary. There was another slight hiccup over last weekend.
The IDF accused Hamas of violating the ceasefire agreement on January 25 by releasing female soldiers before female civilians. In response it said it would prevent Palestinians returning to the northern Gaza Strip.
However this has since been resolved and displaced Palestinians are now making the long, slow trip north to where their homes used to stand. A further complication has arisen in the form of – who else – Donald Trump.
In an interview with journalists on board Air Force One he described Gaza as a “demolition site” where “you’re talking about probably a million and a half people, and we just clean out that whole thing”, adding that the move could be temporary or it could be long-term.
Typical Trump bluff and bluster, you might think, but reportedly he has already approached King Abdullah of Jordan to ask him to take the potential displaced Palestinians and plans to ask Egypt to do the same. Neither country will be keen on the idea.
But Trump loves to do deals, and is not averse to putting the squeeze on until he gets his way. Anyway, are we witnessing the beginning of a permanent peace coming to Gaza? Sadly I very much doubt it.
Hamas has been defeated but not eliminated, and the Israeli hostages have been released amongst a sea of gunmen (who have suddenly rediscovered their uniforms it would seem) making the most of the PR opportunity to show they were still around. We’ll see soon enough whether we get as far as phases two and three of the agreement.
I wouldn’t hold my breath.