An official forecast has Britain’s population rising from 67.6 million in 2022 to 72.5 million in 2032
KARL BLACK/ALAMY
If the United Kingdom relied on the fertility of its current population to supply the workers of the future the outlook would be bleak. Latest figures show that women in England and Wales will produce an average of 1.44 children each in their lifetime. That is down from 1.59 in previous projections and well below the average of 2.1 live births needed to maintain a stable population. That figure of 1.44 represents a remarkable shift in social attitudes and is the lowest rate since comparable data was first compiled in 1938. If the experience of other developed countries is anything to go by it is a decline that will be nigh on impossible to reverse. Italy, Japan and South Korea are already grappling with the consequences of low birthrates and steadily shrinking and ageing populations. According to the United Nations, the population has already peaked in 63 countries, half of them in Europe.
For Britain the demographic outlook is both brighter and more challenging, but in a different way. A backdated forecast just published by the Office for National Statistics has this country’s population rising from 67.6 million in 2022 to 72.5 million in 2032. And all of that forecast 4.9 million rise, and indeed any rise in Britain in the 21st century, will come from immigration. For some this is a blessing, for others a curse. Who is right depends not on raw numbers but on the quality of people being let in to the country, the adequacy of plans to cater for them and the measures in place to control and monitor admissions. At the moment the public are unconvinced on these points.
As a tier one issue immigration declined for a while after Brexit but resurfaced following an explosion in immigration from non-European countries in 2022-23. A moderate decline the following year did little to dampen concern and combined with illegal immigration in the form of small boat crossings these figures helped seal the Conservatives’ fate. Governments that cannot with any confidence say how many foreigners are in the country and how many are here legally cannot expect to survive. Aware of the toxicity of migration Labour has sought to emulate the Tories’ aggressive stance (the ONS forecast likely inflates the number of incomers by ignoring new, more draconian visa rules). Indeed, so terrified are ministers of scathing headlines that they have even dragged their feet on re-establishing a youth exchange scheme with the European Union, a thoroughly good proposal.
This does the country a disservice. Britain needs more people of working age who want to work, and it also needs people with skills. Of course, it should be looking to its own young to fill jobs vacancies but they alone cannot meet the needs of the economy and care system. Solving the domestic skills shortage is a vital growth measure but it will take time. If this country is to match the dynamism of the United States it must be prepared to harvest talent from abroad. The ONS figures contain another time bomb: people of pensionable age are due to increase by 1.7 million to 13.7 million by 2032. The requirement for carers is only set to grow.
In 2017 PwC looked ahead to the world in 2050 and concluded that, despite the rise of nations with huge populations like Indonesia and Brazil, Britain would remain a top ten economy because of its own growing population. Greying Italy, meanwhile, would be long gone. To survive in the premier league Britain must operate a sustainable immigration policy commanding broad public consent. That means mature debate about why migrants are needed and in what numbers. It also means a visa system that discriminates ruthlessly in favour of youth and talent, a monitoring system that detects and ejects illegals and a planning system that prepares for more people. Growing the population without increased productivity is, in the long run, pointless. But Britain can become a truly vibrant economy if it is prepared to throw open its doors to the brightest and the best.