The price of some essential food and household items in Iran has increased by 2 to 2.5 times between October 2024 and January 2025. However, official reports do not reflect these price hikes. For example, while the Statistical Center of Iran reported only a 2% increase in the official price of cooking oil, market data indicates a 15% rise.

The Iranian regime’s Statistical Center published a report titled “Average Prices of Selected Food Items in Urban Areas – January 2024” on January 29.

According to this report, the prices of 53 food items increased by an average of about 37% in December 2024 and early January 2025 compared to the same period the previous year.

Food Insecurity Is Rapidly Spreading in Iran

In its inflation report (Consumer Price Index), published on January 23, the center reported a point-to-point inflation rate of approximately 32% for January. The inflation rate for food items in January 2025 compared to January 2024 was reported to be around 27%.

From the Market to Official Reports

An analysis of the prices of 15 household consumer goods in Iran shows a significant difference between market prices and the figures in the official report.

The Statistical Center reported a 22% increase in the price of imported rice in January 2025 compared to the previous year. However, market analysis indicates that a 10-kilogram bag of Pakistani rice, which cost 6.5 million rials (approximately $0.70) in late January last year, is now being sold for around 17.5 million rials (approximately $2.10) in the market. This represents an increase of approximately 170%.

The Statistical Center reports that the price of lamb meat increased by approximately 27% in January 2025 compared to January 2024. However, market data shows that a three-kilogram package of lamb shoulder meat has risen by 81% over the same period.

Price Increases Amid Gasoline Prices, Air Pollution, Negotiations, and War

While media attention is largely focused on issues such as negotiations, the rising exchange rate of the dollar, gasoline prices, and the possibility of war, market prices have seen significant increases not only over the past year but also in the past three and nine months of the current Iranian year.

The average price increase for the 15 items examined in this report was approximately 60% in January 2025 compared to June 2024.

The Strange Case of Cooking Oil and Medicine

Starting in early January 2025, cooking oil manufacturers began raising their prices. Eventually, on January 13, the Market Regulation Headquarters officially approved a price increase of up to 15% for various types of liquid and solid cooking oils intended for household use.

However, the latest report from the Statistical Center states that the price of liquid and solid vegetable oils increased by only about 2% in January compared to December 2024.

Medicine faced a similar situation. At the same time as the Market Regulation Headquarters’ decision, the Food and Drug Administration granted many pharmaceutical companies permission to raise prices by up to five times or 400%. However, the inflation report from the Statistical Center recorded inflation in the healthcare sector at only about 2% in January 2025 compared to December 2024.