The European Union has to fight for survival while at a serious disadvantage: While it is, by definition, the product of consensus and gradual evolution, its rivals are disruptive, determined and ruthless. The challenges that the Union faces today are not limited to the need for greater competitiveness, for economic and military security, for improved demographics, for an effective climate policy. It must also deal with Russia, China and, lately, the United States. The increasing global rivalry complicates the problems that the whole world faces, giving an advantage to those who are indifferent to the broader consequences of policies serving their narrow, national interests.
The EU cannot mimic the belligerence of Donald Trump or Vladimir Putin to achieve what it wants, as the uncertainty in the global economy and the climate crisis can be dealt with only through cooperation and trust between nations. Europe today is trying to deal with the fact that the three pillars on which it based its security, its energy supply and its economic growth (the United States, Russia and China, respectively) are now unpredictable rivals. Dealing with them demands the greatest possible unity between member-states. But Trump’s return to power and Putin’s propaganda empower and embolden political forces within the EU who seek its disintegration. These forces, like their political mentors, are ruthless, indifferent to the consequences of their policies.
The EU’s superpower was always its “soft power.” The desire to help distant nations develop and to protect vulnerable groups, its educated and well-trained population, the respect for the rule of law, all remain precious weapons to help the planet escape the spiral it is in. The Union, though, will survive only if its leaders and people realize that the status quo is crumbling, that they must act as one country, with determination, against foreign and domestic rivals. They must protect their values while pursuing economic and defense security. Because the greatest weapon of those on the offensive is that they make others believe that resistance is futile.