Yes, talk of a labour resurgence in Scotland, were, obviously, untrue. The last GE was surely about getting rid of the Tories in a system which is either going to deliver a Tory or labour government. Scotland voted for labour.
That was by no means the massive endorsement that labour predictably said it was. When it comes to Holyrood Scots don’t trust labour to run it and will not hand them a victory.
Can we all just take a second to remember Labour are already currently only the *third* party in Holyrood
Behind the Tories. In Scotland ffs
It’s also worth remembering in the 2024 UK election Labour barely managed many more votes in Scotland than they got in the 2017 GE which resulted in just ONE MP in Scotland – And to put that into perspective:- SNP got almost exactly the same votes in 2024 as that Labour in 2017 result and SNP got 9 MPs out of it
It’s no shock that Labour aren’t going to win in 2026 because they never were
In Scotland, the actual numbers never ever showed this “Labour resurgence” the media bleated on about
Would it be different if Sarwar wasn’t in the top job? Probably not, the talent pool in Labours Holyrood branch office (sorry, I meant ‘accounting unit’) isn’t brimming with charisma or talent – I’d bet good money on nobody in this thread (who isn’t a Labour activist) being able to name who Sarwar ran against to get the top job without googling it
Guess the usual accounts who just so happened to start frequenting here just before the general election will be disappointed lol
> Professor Curtice said Reform was picking up votes from all the other parties.
…
> “That largely reflects what we’re seeing elsewhere. Essentially, Reform is picking up a predominantly Unionist vote. They are fracturing the Unionist vote north of the border even more.
> “It is that fracturing of the Union vote that helps to create the prospect that we end up with another Nationalist majority in Holyrood.”
For those who can’t be bothered clicking through, the seat projection is:
* SNP 56 (-13)
* Lab 16 (-6)
* Green 15 (+7)
* Con 15 (-16)
* Lib Dem 15 (+11)
* Reform 9 (+9)
* Alba 8 (+8)
Notwithstanding the impossibility of Alba getting 8 seats in practice, that is the spiciest projection in a while.
I think we will see the public voted to both get the Tories out & send the SNP a warning without giving Labour meaningful power
Labour will remain more popular than years gone by for a little bit but I think too many people realise SNP are the only mainstream Scottish party who represent Scotland for better or worse
Tories & Reform I shudder to even imagine any Scottish person voting for, although I’m glad Reform will split up the Unionist vote even more
Scottish politics is crying out for parties who are independent of Westminster & don’t have a track record that makes them a ‘lesser evil’ vote rather than you know… someone you’re actually proud to vote for
Remember that campervan thing that was a big deal for what…about 4 years, cost us around £2m, was in the News all the time and now we hear the thick end of fuck all about?
Labour were finished as a party of government after their behaviour in 2014 and isn’t coming back.
The SNP might be dented if there are Branchform prosecutions, and obviously there is a much more significant shadow looming over them, but even so, they are still going to be the first port of call for 45% of the electorate.
The big thing is Reform. If they can cannibalise the Tory vote, which they seem to be doing, and start making inroads into the working-class Labour vote, they start becoming A Thing.
Scotland now has pre-2020 Irish-style politics where left and right doesn’t particularly matter, and the position on the Constitution is the most important factor for most voters.
Voters who want independence won’t vote for Unionist parties, and vice-versa. The SNP will gain from this, as there is only one pro-independence party with a credible prospect of forming a government, whereas the Unionist sub-electorate is divided between four parties of almost equal attraction, each of which has a radically different prospectus from the others.
Where I think there is a risk for the SNP is that the alienated working class vote – the “this is absolutely shite and we will vote for any sort of change cos it can’t be any worse than _this_” vote which was harnessed, but not fully exploited, by Yes in 2014, will look to Reform for that radical change given that the SNP under Swinney’s leadership appears timid on independence, reluctant to bring about radical reform, and unable to offer them a different and better vision for Scotland. If that segment of the electorate breaks to Reform, and there’s no indication _at the moment_ that they are, then the post-indyref consensus could be up in the air.
Also the Liberal Democrats still exist, God love them.
Wonder if Westminster will pick a new leader for “Scottish” Labour before the next elections.
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Yes, talk of a labour resurgence in Scotland, were, obviously, untrue. The last GE was surely about getting rid of the Tories in a system which is either going to deliver a Tory or labour government. Scotland voted for labour.
That was by no means the massive endorsement that labour predictably said it was. When it comes to Holyrood Scots don’t trust labour to run it and will not hand them a victory.
Can we all just take a second to remember Labour are already currently only the *third* party in Holyrood
Behind the Tories. In Scotland ffs
It’s also worth remembering in the 2024 UK election Labour barely managed many more votes in Scotland than they got in the 2017 GE which resulted in just ONE MP in Scotland – And to put that into perspective:- SNP got almost exactly the same votes in 2024 as that Labour in 2017 result and SNP got 9 MPs out of it
It’s no shock that Labour aren’t going to win in 2026 because they never were
In Scotland, the actual numbers never ever showed this “Labour resurgence” the media bleated on about
Would it be different if Sarwar wasn’t in the top job? Probably not, the talent pool in Labours Holyrood branch office (sorry, I meant ‘accounting unit’) isn’t brimming with charisma or talent – I’d bet good money on nobody in this thread (who isn’t a Labour activist) being able to name who Sarwar ran against to get the top job without googling it
Guess the usual accounts who just so happened to start frequenting here just before the general election will be disappointed lol
> Professor Curtice said Reform was picking up votes from all the other parties.
…
> “That largely reflects what we’re seeing elsewhere. Essentially, Reform is picking up a predominantly Unionist vote. They are fracturing the Unionist vote north of the border even more.
> “It is that fracturing of the Union vote that helps to create the prospect that we end up with another Nationalist majority in Holyrood.”
For those who can’t be bothered clicking through, the seat projection is:
* SNP 56 (-13)
* Lab 16 (-6)
* Green 15 (+7)
* Con 15 (-16)
* Lib Dem 15 (+11)
* Reform 9 (+9)
* Alba 8 (+8)
Notwithstanding the impossibility of Alba getting 8 seats in practice, that is the spiciest projection in a while.
I think we will see the public voted to both get the Tories out & send the SNP a warning without giving Labour meaningful power
Labour will remain more popular than years gone by for a little bit but I think too many people realise SNP are the only mainstream Scottish party who represent Scotland for better or worse
Tories & Reform I shudder to even imagine any Scottish person voting for, although I’m glad Reform will split up the Unionist vote even more
Scottish politics is crying out for parties who are independent of Westminster & don’t have a track record that makes them a ‘lesser evil’ vote rather than you know… someone you’re actually proud to vote for
Remember that campervan thing that was a big deal for what…about 4 years, cost us around £2m, was in the News all the time and now we hear the thick end of fuck all about?
Labour were finished as a party of government after their behaviour in 2014 and isn’t coming back.
The SNP might be dented if there are Branchform prosecutions, and obviously there is a much more significant shadow looming over them, but even so, they are still going to be the first port of call for 45% of the electorate.
The big thing is Reform. If they can cannibalise the Tory vote, which they seem to be doing, and start making inroads into the working-class Labour vote, they start becoming A Thing.
Scotland now has pre-2020 Irish-style politics where left and right doesn’t particularly matter, and the position on the Constitution is the most important factor for most voters.
Voters who want independence won’t vote for Unionist parties, and vice-versa. The SNP will gain from this, as there is only one pro-independence party with a credible prospect of forming a government, whereas the Unionist sub-electorate is divided between four parties of almost equal attraction, each of which has a radically different prospectus from the others.
Where I think there is a risk for the SNP is that the alienated working class vote – the “this is absolutely shite and we will vote for any sort of change cos it can’t be any worse than _this_” vote which was harnessed, but not fully exploited, by Yes in 2014, will look to Reform for that radical change given that the SNP under Swinney’s leadership appears timid on independence, reluctant to bring about radical reform, and unable to offer them a different and better vision for Scotland. If that segment of the electorate breaks to Reform, and there’s no indication _at the moment_ that they are, then the post-indyref consensus could be up in the air.
Also the Liberal Democrats still exist, God love them.
Wonder if Westminster will pick a new leader for “Scottish” Labour before the next elections.
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