Based on our original estimates from 2022, all the marine areas with active exploration blocks have the potential to host natural gas quantities capable of covering annual domestic consumption for several years, according to Aristofanis Stefatos.
US energy giant Chevron’s interest in Greek hydrocarbons was first expressed in January 2022 and culminated in an official proposal following a detailed analysis of the available data, which it acquired in 2023, and a series of systematic visits to Greece, the CEO of the Hellenic Hydrocarbons and Energy Resources Management Company (HEREMA), Aristofanis Stefatos, tells Kathimerini.
“I cannot rule out the possibility of even more interest being expressed,” he says, responding to whether Chevron is only eyeing exploration in the area south of the Peloponnese, for which it was recently given the green light.
HEREMA, after all, has never stopped looking for new potential areas, he says, adding that the results of seismic surveys conducted by ExxonMobil and Helleniq Energy off the coast of Crete and in the Ionian Sea are encouraging. More deposits have been mapped compared to earlier surveys, confirming initial estimates that some may even be comparable to Zohr, the giant gas field discovered off Egypt. The marine areas around Crete and the Ionian Sea hold significant potential for natural gas deposits, with quantities that could exceed the country’s annual domestic consumption for several years, according to HEREMA’s estimates. However, only exploratory drilling can confirm the presence of hydrocarbons underground, emphasizes Stefatos, while refraining from providing details about if or when ExxonMobil will begin drilling off Crete. Once a deposit is discovered, it would take an estimated four to six years for production to commence.
Chevron’s interest in exploring the area off the Peloponnese was announced recently. What made the world’s second largest oil producer turn to this unexplored territory?
We are especially proud at HEREMA, because Chevron’s expression of interest marks the fruition of our systematic and persistent efforts. The first meeting took place in January 2022 at our offices. The following year, in 2023, Chevron purchased all the available data and began an in-depth analysis. This was followed by a series of systematic visits to Greece, which led to the development of a relationship based on mutual respect and trust. I believe the speed and efficiency of the exploratory work conducted by ExxonMobil, Helleniq Energy and Energean played a catalytic role.
It’s a very important development, as it not only draws attention to an unexplored and promising geological basin south of the Peloponnese but also demonstrates that our country is being assessed as a reliable future partner for a high-risk, capital-intensive investment endeavor.
What are the next steps?
The process of declaring an international competition has already begun and HEREMA is drafting the invitation of expressions of interest. Once this is approved, it will be published in the Government Gazette and the Official Journal of the European Union for a period of 90 days. We will then evaluate the offers and submit our recommendations to the Energy Ministry. The aim is for a leasing agreement to be signed within the year.
Is Chevron’s interest in Greece limited to this specific area? The ministry’s announcement indicated that it was evaluating other concessions too.
Greece is trying to explore areas where the sea is very deep and which are far away from land. We have not stopped working independently and in parallel with the exploratory activities of the contracted companies to identify areas of interest at HEREMA. Based on our understanding of the geology of our marine basins and the emerging positive trends in the global energy market, I cannot rule out the possibility of greater interest being expressed in the future.
Are we going to see drills? When is the final investment decision expected for the exploratory drilling by ExxonMobil off Crete?
Exploratory drilling is the culmination of all the surveys and investment of significant funds in surveys, as it is the only way to confirm the presence of hydrocarbons underground. But it is a decision that depends on many factors such as the detailed lithology or the age of the geological formations that we cannot know in advance. The chances of success are very small, therefore, especially for the first boreholes. This, combined with the fact that each deep-sea borehole can cost in excess of €100 million, makes the decisions for the initial exploratory drillings particularly challenging and demanding.
We are very pleased with the presence of top companies with extensive experience and expertise, and we trust that ExxonMobil has all the necessary qualities to make the most appropriate decisions.
How encouraging are the findings so far? Do they confirm initial indications of a gasfield possibly as big as Zohr?
We must respect the commercial confidentiality of the companies operating in the leased blocks. However, what I can share is that the seismic surveys were successfully conducted, providing us with better subsurface imaging compared to previous data. In most of the exploration areas, we are beginning to better understand the different geological interpretations, and with the density estimated by seismic mapping, we were able to map more structures. As a result, our initial estimates that certain carbon structures in Greece might be comparable to the Zohr field remain valid. Whether these structures have been fed with hydrocarbons and contain sufficient volumes of natural gas are two critical questions that remain to be answered.
If significant reserves are discovered, how soon could production begin and what would the benefits for the Greek state be?
Identifying a deposit, beyond estimating the volume of the discovery, will also provide us with a range of critical information regarding the characteristics of the hydrocarbons it contains, and the conditions and the features of the reservoir that hosts them. This information will determine the requirements and design of the production and transportation facilities, which may be floating or subsea, more or less complex, and technologically demanding. Without this information, we can only estimate that it will take approximately four to six years for production to begin.
The benefits for the Greek state would, of course, depend on the size of the discovery. Based on our initial 2022 estimates, all marine areas with active exploration blocks have the potential to contain quantities of natural gas sufficient to exceed the country’s annual domestic consumption for several years. Should these efforts succeed, therefore, Greece could secure its energy supply during future supply crises, mitigate fluctuations in energy prices and strengthen both its local and national economy, on one hand, through investments near production areas, and on the other, through potential exports.
Combined with our excellent performance in the production of clean, green energy and the prospects for developing offshore wind farms, Greece has the potential to become an energy hub for exporting energy, enhancing its regional and European influence.