The German Federal Election on February 23, 2025, is set to have significant implications both domestically and internationally. With the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) projected to win 222 out of 630 seats, they will emerge as the largest party but will fall short of the majority required to govern independently.

Given their refusal to work with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is expected to secure 146 seats, the CDU will need to form a coalition with the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Green Party to establish a functioning government. This political landscape presents several challenges, including coalition complexities, ideological differences, and the broader impact on European and global affairs. The outcome of this election will shape Germany’s political direction, economic policies, and international standing, making it a pivotal event for both the country and the wider world.

Germany has long been regarded as the anchor of stability in the European Union (EU), playing a leading role in shaping policies on economic growth, security, and climate action. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government, led by the SPD, has faced growing discontent due to economic stagnation and dissatisfaction with immigration policies, leading to a decline in SPD support. The CDU, under the leadership of Friedrich Merz, has capitalized on this discontent, promising a return to economic conservatism, stricter migration policies, and enhanced national security measures. Polling data from late 2024 indicates that the CDU has gained momentum, outpacing the SPD, which is projected to win fewer than 150 seats, while the Greens are expected to secure approximately 100 seats. Meanwhile, the AfD’s increasing support, particularly in eastern Germany, highlights the growing appeal of nationalist and anti-immigration rhetoric among certain segments of the population.

One of the most pressing challenges facing Germany post-election is the difficulty of coalition formation. The CDU has firmly ruled out any alliance with the AfD, citing fundamental ideological differences and the party’s controversial positions on immigration, EU membership, and historical revisionism. This leaves the CDU with the SPD and the Greens as potential partners, but forming a coalition with them presents its own set of difficulties. The SPD and Greens advocate for progressive social policies, aggressive climate action, and increased public spending—positions that contrast sharply with the CDU’s emphasis on fiscal conservatism and traditional values. Negotiations between these parties will require significant compromise, particularly on key policy areas such as taxation, defense spending, and Germany’s stance within the EU.

Beyond coalition negotiations, Germany faces mounting economic challenges that will test any new government. Economic forecasts for 2024 indicated sluggish growth, with GDP expansion hovering around 0.7%, hindered by high energy costs, an aging workforce, and declining industrial output. Inflation, while reduced from its peak in 2022, continues to be a concern, particularly in sectors such as housing and food. The CDU has proposed pro-business policies, including corporate tax reductions and deregulation, to stimulate investment. However, the SPD and Greens favor increased social spending and green energy subsidies, raising concerns over potential fiscal disagreements within a coalition. These economic divergences will require a carefully negotiated economic strategy to ensure stability and growth while addressing social inequalities.

In addition to economic concerns, Germany’s role within the EU and on the global stage remains a critical factor in this election. The country has been a staunch supporter of EU integration, but rising nationalist sentiments, fueled by the AfD and elements within the CDU, have sparked debates over sovereignty and Brussels’ influence on German policies. The war in Ukraine has further complicated Germany’s foreign policy stance, with ongoing debates about military aid and energy independence from Russia. A CDU-led government is likely to continue supporting Ukraine but may face internal pressure to adopt a more pragmatic approach to energy security and diplomatic relations. Meanwhile, tensions with China over trade and supply chain dependencies add another layer of complexity to Germany’s international strategy. The ability of the next government to navigate these geopolitical challenges while maintaining strong EU leadership will be crucial for Germany’s global standing.

The rise of the AfD poses another major challenge to Germany’s political stability. Despite the CDU’s rejection of any partnership with the far-right party, the AfD’s growing support signals increasing polarization among the electorate. The party’s anti-immigration platform, Euroscepticism, and nationalist rhetoric have resonated with voters disillusioned with traditional parties. In several eastern German states, the AfD has already become the dominant political force, raising concerns about regional divisions within the country. The mainstream parties face the difficult task of addressing voter frustrations without legitimizing the AfD’s controversial positions. This challenge extends to the broader European context, where far-right movements have gained traction in countries such as France and Italy, threatening the cohesion of the EU.

Climate policy is another contentious issue that will shape Germany’s political future. The Greens have been strong advocates for aggressive environmental measures, including phasing out coal, expanding renewable energy infrastructure, and imposing stricter emissions regulations. While the SPD has generally supported these initiatives, the CDU has called for a more balanced approach that prioritizes economic stability alongside climate goals. The challenge for a CDU-led coalition will be finding common ground on climate policies that satisfy Green Party demands while maintaining competitiveness in industrial sectors. The potential scaling back of ambitious climate targets could create friction within the EU, where Germany has been a driving force in sustainability efforts.

In the broader context, the outcome of Germany’s election will influence Europe’s political trajectory. The EU faces multiple crises, from economic stagnation to geopolitical tensions with Russia and China. Germany’s new government will play a decisive role in shaping EU policies on trade, defense, and energy independence. A fragmented coalition could weaken Germany’s influence in Brussels, complicating efforts to address pressing European challenges. Moreover, the election will be closely watched by international allies, including the United States, which relies on Germany as a key partner in NATO and global security initiatives.

Ultimately, the 2025 German federal election is not just about forming a new government; it is about defining the country’s future direction in a rapidly changing world. The CDU’s expected victory, while significant, does not guarantee smooth governance, as coalition negotiations will determine the effectiveness of the next administration. Economic uncertainties, political polarization, and foreign policy challenges will require adept leadership and strategic compromises. Germany’s ability to maintain stability and assert its role within Europe and beyond will depend on how effectively the next government navigates these complex issues. The decisions made in the coming months will shape not only Germany’s domestic policies but also its position as a global power, making this election one of the most consequential in recent history.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own.

References

 Karnitschnig, Matthew. Germany’s New Era: Politics, Power, and the Future of Europe. Oxford University Press, 2023.

 Müller, Jan-Werner. Democracy in Crisis: The Rise of Populism and the Future of European Politics. Princeton University Press, 2023.

 Schmidt, Vivien A. Europe at a Crossroads: Economic Policies and Political Uncertainty. Cambridge University Press, 2023.