Is Cambodia slipping out of China’s orbit?

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1. SS: According to *The Economist* (Jan 30, 2025), Cambodia’s once-solid alignment with China appears to be shifting as a new generation of leaders, led by Prime Minister Hun Manet, navigates a more complex geopolitical landscape. While China previously poured at least $1 billion annually into Cambodia, recent tensions – ranging from Beijing’s reluctance to fund the country’s ambitious Techo canal to disputes over scam syndicates – signal a cooling of ties. Meanwhile, Western nations, particularly the U.S., see an opening; high-level American visits and a rare warship port call hint at efforts to counterbalance Chinese influence.

   However, former Prime Minister Hun Sen, still wielding significant power as Senate president and ruling party chief, remains skeptical of American intentions and continues to court multiple partners, including American allies – Japan and Australia. The biggest wildcard remains the naval base at Ream, where China’s involvement fuels Western suspicions despite Cambodian assurances. Ultimately, while Hun Manet and his Western-educated peers might be more open to engagement, deep-rooted political dynamics, economic dependencies, and Cambodia’s authoritarian governance make any definitive shift away from China uncertain.

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