Iran’s Vice-President for strategic affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif addresses the audience during the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 22.FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP/Getty Images
To identify as Canadian these days in Tehran is to evoke amusement and pity from Iranians. “You are from the 51st state?” one professor jokes as soon as he hears his visitor’s nationality.
Many Iranians, long accustomed to U.S. hostility to their government, have been pleased to see Canada joining the ranks of Washington’s foreign targets, with U.S. President Donald Trump openly floating the idea of annexing his northern neighbour.
Mr. Trump’s threats against Canada have handed a useful propaganda weapon to Iran. They allow the Iranian government and its sympathizers to argue that even the most loyal of Washington’s allies can quickly become victims of its aggression. And this, in turn, gives Tehran a new batch of rhetorical ammunition to wield against the Trump administration and its pressure tactics – including the new Iran sanctions that the U.S. announced this week.
This protester turned out on Parliament Hill with a combined Canada-U.S. flag on Feb. 1, the day Mr. Trump announced tariffs that, after a later conversation with Justin Trudeau, he put on hold for 30 days.Justin Tang/The Canadian Press
“It’s a lesson for people in Iran: Even if you’re Canada, you cannot really trust the Americans,” said Foad Izadi, a professor of world studies at the University of Tehran and the man who made the joke about the 51st state.
He noted that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had tried to talk with Mr. Trump when the tariff threats were first raised – even flying to his Florida home to meet him – but the U.S. President soon began talking of annexing Canada.
“No Iranian politician would want to be an Iranian version of Trudeau,” Prof. Izadi told The Globe and Mail. “You cannot be more friendly to the United States than the Canadians. But being an American friend is not necessarily a good thing.”
He cited a quotation often attributed to former secretary of state Henry Kissinger: “If you are enemy of the United States, it could be dangerous. But if you’re a friend of the United States, that’s fatal.”
Since their 1979 revolution, Iranians have had decades of experience with economic barriers to the United States and its allies. They are waiting to see how this will change under Mr. Trump’s administration.ATTA KENARE/AFP via Getty Images
Mr. Trump’s policy on Iran remains unclear. This week he signed a presidential memorandum on expanded sanctions and tougher enforcement against Iran, reviving the “maximum pressure” policy of his first term. But at the same time he suggested that the new measures might not be necessary. He said he is open to negotiations to “work out a deal” with Iran, and he even argued that many Iranian leaders do not want to develop a nuclear weapon – undermining the claims that Washington has made about Iranian intentions for years.
Since the inauguration of Mr. Trump last month, the Iranian government has emphasized that it is willing to negotiate with the new U.S. administration to see if the two sides have enough leeway for a possible agreement on Iran’s nuclear program and other issues.
Iranian vice-president Javad Zarif, who led the negotiations for the 2015 nuclear agreement, travelled to the Davos conference in Switzerland last month and made it clear that Iran is still interested in negotiations with Washington, as long as Mr. Trump is “more serious, more focused, more realistic.”
But deep suspicions and divisions have remained. Some Iranian hardliners have criticized Mr. Zarif and others who support negotiations.
In this atmosphere, the Trump attacks on Canada are cited as evidence of American untrustworthiness in any proposed talks. One conservative Iranian newspaper, Jam-e Jam, cited Mr. Trump’s recent threats against Canada – along with his campaigns against Denmark and Panama – as proof of his “unilateralism.”
Not only is his talk of annexation and tariff wars against U.S. allies making it easier for Iran to portray Washington as the villain in any dispute, it could also make it harder for Mr. Trump to mobilize a global coalition against Iran or to seek international support for a military attack on Iran. “Trump is trying to make new enemies, like Canada,” said Manouchehr Mottaki, a former Iranian foreign minister who is now a member of parliament.
“The problem with the United States is that they would like everyone to obey what they say – and most nations do not like this,” Mr. Mottaki told The Globe in an interview in Tehran’s parliament building.
“Eighty per cent of Canadians do not accept Trump’s position towards Canada. This is not only true for Canadians and Iranians – most nations want to be independent and decide for themselves. But the Americans still do not realize that the world has changed. It’s not the world of 50 or 30 years ago.”
Qassem Soleimani, middle, is a slain Iranian commander whose death Mr. Trump ordered in his first term. He gets pride of place in billboards around Tehran, alongside former leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas.ATTA KENARE/AFP via Getty Images/AFP/Getty Images
Pooya Mirzaei, an Iranian international affairs analyst, is skeptical of the argument from some optimists that Mr. Trump will prefer to be a dealmaker on the global stage in his second term, including with Iran.
It was Mr. Trump, he notes, who withdrew the United States from the nuclear agreement with Iran in 2018 and later ordered the attack that killed Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani. And his recent clashes with U.S. allies – including Canada, Panama and Denmark – are evidence of Mr. Trump’s aggressiveness, he told The Globe.
“If he speaks like a bully, the first problems will arise with Canada, Mexico and Europe,” Mr. Mirzaei said.
“He claims that Canada must be one of the U.S. states. Canadians have to care about such rhetoric. Maybe Trump won’t do it, but it’s like Pandora’s box – in the future maybe other people in the United States will think strongly about annexing Canada. He has shown the road map.”