Quantum Commodity Intelligence – Crude oil futures in Asian trading hours Thursday were marginally higher as prices steadied following a tumultuous week so far.
Front-month Apr25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $74.67/b (0745 GMT) compared to Wednesday’s settle of $74.61/b.
At the same time Mar25 NYMEX WTI was trading at $71.11/b, versus Wednesday’s close of $71.03/b.
Benchmarks lost around 2% in the previous session amid concerns over a looming global trade war, while a steep rise in US crude inventories added to the downward pressure.
The primary concern for markets is an escalation in the US-China tariff standoff, which would hamper this year’s global GDP growth and in turn stifle oil demand.
China’s tariffs include surcharges on US energy supplies, but for now, Goldman Sachs expects China’s retaliatory move to have a limited impact on broader oil fundamentals, causing only shipments to be rerouted rather than any shortages.
Iran
The other key driver this week was the US executive order aimed at restoring “maximum pressure” on Iran, threatening to slash Tehran’s oil revenues to zero unless a deal on its nuclear ambitions is reached.
Crude benchmarks soared more than $2/b when the news broke Tuesday but have since rowed back, with broader demand concerns and generally bearish sentiment taking hold.
Markets were also weighed down after the latest inventory data from the EIA showed a steep build in US crude stocks despite higher throughputs, increasing 8.6 million barrels.
Gasoline stockpiles added another 2.2 million barrels, standing just 2 million barrels off the year’s January peak and having ballooned by more than 44 million barrels over 12 weeks.
However, the US Arctic blast saw distillate stocks slump by 5 million barrels last week, registering a six-week low of 118.48 million barrels.
Elsewhere, Saudi Aramco on Wednesday sharply increased the Official Selling Price (OSP) for its crudes loading in March, including flagship Arab Light, reflecting the surge in spot premiums for Middle East grades.
The hikes reflected the scramble for spot cargoes after the US hit Russia with a fresh round of sanctions, primarily targeting Moscow-controlled shipping, which supplies refiners in China and India.