Quantum Commodity Intelligence – Crude oil futures in European morning hours Friday were nudging higher but heading for a second week of losses, albeit relatively modest ones this time around.

Front-month Apr25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $74.85/b (0845 GMT) versus Thursday’s settle of $74.29/b, while the Apr25/May25 spread this week has narrowed to around +$0.45/b.

At the same time Mar25 NYMEX WTI was trading at $71.10/b, versus Thursday’s close of $70.61/b.

Benchmarks are now back at levels last seen at the turn of the year with the January bump from US sanctions aimed at Russia now entirely erased, while US tariff policy moved to the forefront.

Tariffs against Canadian crude had briefly lifted prices at the start of the week, but following the one-month deferment oil markets have been in decline amid concerns over a global trade war.

China responded to 10% surcharges on its goods into the US by tariffing US imports by 10-15%, while investors were also watching for potential trade measures from Washington aimed at Europe.

Iran

Oil markets only briefly rallied after the Trump administration issued its first set of sanctions on Iran Thursday, targeting what it said was an illicit international network for facilitating the shipment of millions of barrels of crude to China.

However, the $2/b spike was quickly overturned with an immediate impact on Iranian exports seen as unlikely.

Analysts also said that any successful US policy to slash Tehran’s oil revenues to zero, as threatened, would need support from the wider OPEC group, which is by no means guaranteed.

“Trump has thrown down the gauntlet, demanding that OPEC bring more barrels back to market to cool energy prices. OPEC’s response? A classic display of defiance, brushing off Trump’s demands with a stark reminder that they—not Washington—set the price of oil,” said Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management, referencing this week’s JMMC meeting that made no reference to the group increasing output.

Last Friday, Apr25 Brent futures closed at $75.43/b, while Mar24 WTI settled at $72.53/b.