We should make a proposal for what we think unity would look like. It’s up to the people of Northern Ireland to decide on their future but at least it will be an informed decision then.
Brexit showed how stupid it is to go into big political change with no concrete plans.
Everything continues to trend in the right direction but we’d still need at least another 7 percent swing from no to yes to get the referendum over the line in NI, and that would be a bare majority and on the basis of “don’t know” voters being shared roughly equally between no and yes. The “don’t know” vote has decreased in the last two years, with most of it apparently moving to a yes vote. This trend needs to continue, and there needs to be continued softening of the no vote.
If trends were to continue, realistically we’re still at least 10 years out from having a serious chance of getting the referendum to pass. What I would love to see is for the Irish government to establish some kind of a framework for what the Irish state wants unity to look like. Give voters some idea of what they’d be voting for.
These opinion polls are all well and good but in reality it’s not too dissimilar from Brexit in that people are being asked very important questions about the structure of their country without any State guidance on what would happen if they voted yes.
As we saw in Scotland, the timing is everything: imagine if the 2014 Indy Ref. was held just after Brexit; in the white heat of Scotland being pulled outta Europe despite voting to stay, you could have seen that Indy Ref. going the other way. Total conjecture on my part but for a while there was a lot of noise north of Berwick.
So same with a Border Poll / Ref: it’ll take significant polling before it’d be wise to call any vote, alongside an actual & tangible set of proposals in the event of reunification.
It’s all well and good saying `Yes` in a poll that ultimately means nothing, but if you wanna then ask people to actually _vote_ on the issue, it’ll require some serious (if abstracted) notions about what form this new Ireland would take.
Well I’ll be voting no until we have a clear plan outlined for many different matters such as healthcare, taxation, the constitution, the electoral system, how we are going to integrate over a million British people etc. Can’t make the same mistake as Brexit and focus the debate on symbolic stuff that doesn’t really have much of an impact on daily life.
How sweet is life but we’re crying
One for the nerds, the survey method was to ask people questions in person in their homes.
It is likely that this survey method has a discouraging effect on social unacceptable opinions.
Saying in the north I support a united ireland is a socially unacceptable position.
I’m not arguing that there’s a silent majority for unification (there’s not) but this survey result is unreliable and should not be taken as meaning anything. Using bad data is terrible for analysis.
Same flaw exists in the university of Liverpool’s surveys and the NILT. They are not opinion polls as commonly imagined. Ignore.
It’s called an escape exit. Could y’all sort out the capitalist hell scape thing before we join tho? Things are looking more and more sketchy in the UK but with the south having two parties that I can’t tell the difference between, and people in Sinn Fein who think the Iranian government is cool and awesome I was kinda hoping a United Ireland had something more to offer
Just saying.
Realistically can we afford it?
Have to say this isn’t even top 10 priority for me
Clickbait title. Yes, there was a small rise is support, but the gap is still huge. 48% against vs 34% in favour is massive.
it is a shame that the referendum movement seems to be led by demographics (and Brexit I suppose), rather than any obvious leadership from the Dublin government. there is a momentum building here which could go awry without some clear political direction
like, it wouldn’t take much for the government to simply commission a few reports and working groups. at least something into which to channel this momentum into. we are already at the stage where people want to know what this might look like, even if no one wants the referendum for another decade
Unless the actual costs are laid out in terms of what this will look like financially they can do as many polls as they want
Support in Republic is high but when asked if people wanted but would have additional taxes the support drops.
It also needs to be laid out how it would work out for people who live in the North but work in the South etc, a lot use the advantage of been in the UK to decrease their costs for work in South etc
Plus the North has a huge public sector, a lot of these people support people in the UK, they would be gone as those jobs would be moved back into the UK. What happens in this situation>
I would fully support a United Ireland but we need this information.
I would expect with SF as a party across the border and in the Northern Assembly they would have access to this type of information so why have they never done this?
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We should make a proposal for what we think unity would look like. It’s up to the people of Northern Ireland to decide on their future but at least it will be an informed decision then.
Brexit showed how stupid it is to go into big political change with no concrete plans.
Everything continues to trend in the right direction but we’d still need at least another 7 percent swing from no to yes to get the referendum over the line in NI, and that would be a bare majority and on the basis of “don’t know” voters being shared roughly equally between no and yes. The “don’t know” vote has decreased in the last two years, with most of it apparently moving to a yes vote. This trend needs to continue, and there needs to be continued softening of the no vote.
If trends were to continue, realistically we’re still at least 10 years out from having a serious chance of getting the referendum to pass. What I would love to see is for the Irish government to establish some kind of a framework for what the Irish state wants unity to look like. Give voters some idea of what they’d be voting for.
These opinion polls are all well and good but in reality it’s not too dissimilar from Brexit in that people are being asked very important questions about the structure of their country without any State guidance on what would happen if they voted yes.
As we saw in Scotland, the timing is everything: imagine if the 2014 Indy Ref. was held just after Brexit; in the white heat of Scotland being pulled outta Europe despite voting to stay, you could have seen that Indy Ref. going the other way. Total conjecture on my part but for a while there was a lot of noise north of Berwick.
So same with a Border Poll / Ref: it’ll take significant polling before it’d be wise to call any vote, alongside an actual & tangible set of proposals in the event of reunification.
It’s all well and good saying `Yes` in a poll that ultimately means nothing, but if you wanna then ask people to actually _vote_ on the issue, it’ll require some serious (if abstracted) notions about what form this new Ireland would take.
Well I’ll be voting no until we have a clear plan outlined for many different matters such as healthcare, taxation, the constitution, the electoral system, how we are going to integrate over a million British people etc. Can’t make the same mistake as Brexit and focus the debate on symbolic stuff that doesn’t really have much of an impact on daily life.
How sweet is life but we’re crying
One for the nerds, the survey method was to ask people questions in person in their homes.
It is likely that this survey method has a discouraging effect on social unacceptable opinions.
Saying in the north I support a united ireland is a socially unacceptable position.
I’m not arguing that there’s a silent majority for unification (there’s not) but this survey result is unreliable and should not be taken as meaning anything. Using bad data is terrible for analysis.
Same flaw exists in the university of Liverpool’s surveys and the NILT. They are not opinion polls as commonly imagined. Ignore.
It’s called an escape exit. Could y’all sort out the capitalist hell scape thing before we join tho? Things are looking more and more sketchy in the UK but with the south having two parties that I can’t tell the difference between, and people in Sinn Fein who think the Iranian government is cool and awesome I was kinda hoping a United Ireland had something more to offer
Just saying.
Realistically can we afford it?
Have to say this isn’t even top 10 priority for me
Clickbait title. Yes, there was a small rise is support, but the gap is still huge. 48% against vs 34% in favour is massive.
it is a shame that the referendum movement seems to be led by demographics (and Brexit I suppose), rather than any obvious leadership from the Dublin government. there is a momentum building here which could go awry without some clear political direction
like, it wouldn’t take much for the government to simply commission a few reports and working groups. at least something into which to channel this momentum into. we are already at the stage where people want to know what this might look like, even if no one wants the referendum for another decade
Unless the actual costs are laid out in terms of what this will look like financially they can do as many polls as they want
Support in Republic is high but when asked if people wanted but would have additional taxes the support drops.
It also needs to be laid out how it would work out for people who live in the North but work in the South etc, a lot use the advantage of been in the UK to decrease their costs for work in South etc
Plus the North has a huge public sector, a lot of these people support people in the UK, they would be gone as those jobs would be moved back into the UK. What happens in this situation>
I would fully support a United Ireland but we need this information.
I would expect with SF as a party across the border and in the Northern Assembly they would have access to this type of information so why have they never done this?
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