The second half of the season starts in Austria this week after a two-month pause over the winter.
Sturm Graz are sitting at the top of the Bundesliga with a three-point lead over Austria Wien, their closest challengers.
Following their failure to reach the knockout phase in the UEFA Champions League and an ÖFB-Cup quarterfinal exit at the hands of the aforementioned Austria Wien last weekend, winning a second consecutive league title is now the sole priority for the club this campaign.
It would be only the second time in club history that Sturm would be Austria’s back-to-back champions, having done so in 1998 and 1999 under the tutelage of the late Ivica Osim.
While they remain the favourites to retain the crown they claimed last year, given the mighty struggles of usual powerhouse Red Bull Salzburg this term, they face a couple of challenges following the winter transfer window, during which they lost two key players who moved abroad.
One of which was a player who had only arrived permanently from Arsenal in the summer following an impressive loan spell last spring, the Austrian Bundesliga’s current top scorer, Mika Biereth, who has since moved on to Monaco, where he’s already hit the ground running with four goals in as many games.
The other is their standard Bosnian international full-back, Jusuf Gazibegović.
He was a regular fixture in the side during his four-and-a-half-year spell at Liebenauer Stadium and moved north to German Bundesliga hopefuls 1. FC Köln.
Interestingly, Sturm didn’t make much of a splash in the market to find replacements for these two important cogs in their past year’s success.
They only brought in a left-back from Marseille’s youth system and a loanee striker who was on the fringes at Bristol City.
With a few potential options already in-house at the club, it’s possible that Sturm already felt they had their replacements lined up even before they walked out the door this past January, which is what we’ll assess in this article.
This tactical and data analysis will examine how Sturm Graz may replace their departing right-back and centre-forward starters in the second half of this season as they seek to retain their Bundesliga title.
Mika Biereth Replacement (Centre-Forward)
Before we look at the potential options to lead the line in Sturm’s attack this spring, let’s look at the radar map of the outgoing Danish striker to get an idea of what kind of profile he was and what he brought to their offence.
Mika Biereth Radar Map
Biereth’s attacking contributions were quite outstanding in the first part of the season.
He ranked in the top 10 percentile in opposition penalty area touches and expected and actual goal contributions per 90 minutes.
He struck eleven times in sixteen league games to become the league’s top scorer.
While he contributes defensively and plays on the ball for his teammates, the data clearly shows that his work inside the box made him an indispensable player for Sturm before he left for Monaco in January.
Mika Biereth Shots Map
To further encapsulate that, his shots map looks quite impressive.
He outperformed his expected goals (xG) by nearly three goals, scoring on average one out of every three attempts, and he scored a whopping 0.27 xG per shot.
Almost all of his strikes at goal came from inside the opposition penalty area, which also highlights where he does most of his damage if the numbers didn’t make that clear enough already.
Overall, Biereth was a high-volume goal contributor for Sturm during his 12 months in Austria, with an average goal every two games in all competitions.
Such strikers will always be hard to replace, particularly for a team in Austria, but that’s the challenge that Sturm will have if they are to achieve their goals this season in the league.
So who are the contenders to replace the Dane up top? There are four in total in their ranks that are up for consideration; let’s go through each of them.
Option 1: Seedy Jatta (21 years old)
On paper, the most obvious option is Seedy Jatta, who is naturally a striker.
However, in the first half of the season, he frequently played either alongside Biereth or just underneath him.
Let’s look at his data profile to get a clue of what he’s brought to the team as a secondary forward and whether maybe there’s room to improve, thereby being installed as the main man with Biereth’s departure, leaving that spot up for grabs.
Seedy Jatta Radar Map
In many ways, Jatta brings a very different skill set to the attack than Biereth, which is evident by comparing their attacking metrics.
While Biereth was a high-volume goal contributor, Jatta brings less of a goal threat in comparison but is similarly very active in the opposition penalty area and ranks high in the league when it comes to his dribbling abilities.
His defensive work appears to be handy as well.
However, if he were to lead the line instead of playing slightly deeper as he has done previously, there would be fewer responsibilities for him in that regard and more in front of goal, which is where he will have to sharpen things if he is to claim that role and make it his.
Jatta, who can also play on both wings as an all-round attacking option, hasn’t been a consistent goalscorer dating back to his professional breakthrough at Vålerenga in his native Norway.
This could be his biggest opportunity yet to change that if he gets more time to play as the team’s leading #9, although it will be a challenge to come remotely close to Biereth’s numbers on a regular basis, given his track record thus far.
Option 2: Fally Mayulu (22 years old)
Another option for Sturm that’s further along in his development in the senior game compared to the last two names we’ll share is the new loan signing from the English Championship’s Bristol City, Fally Mayulu.
What makes Mayulu an interesting candidate in this position for Sturm is that he already has previous experience in Austrian football, having played for Blau Weiss Linz and Rapid Wien prior to his move to England, where he registered a goal or assist every other game on average across eighty-one appearances.
And given that Biereth himself caught Sturm’s eye while on loan in the United Kingdom with Scotland’s Motherwell, perhaps the thinking here is that Mayulu could be a similar success story for them.
If he can produce similarly to how Biereth did last spring, then surely Sturm will look to sign him on a permanent deal just as they did with the Dane last summer.
Fally Mayulu Radar Map
Above is his radar map from his limited appearances in the Championship before his loan.
This suggests a limited sample size from which to draw many conclusions.
Nevertheless, his data profile suggests more balance across the different metrics in comparison to Jatta and Biereth, with his passing ability notably better than the pair’s.
That being said, his struggles to get regular game time and find goalscoring form at Bristol suggests that it will be difficult for him to break into Sturm’s starting eleven right away in a close title race.
But the spot is available for all the options there.
Mayulu may get the edge if the plan is for Jatta to continue in his previous role, given that the other two candidates are both still teenagers with limited senior experience.
Option 3: Amady Camara (19 years old)
The first of those teenagers is the Malian prodigy Amady Camara, who arrived in Sturm from his home country a year and a half ago and has been part of the first team ever since.
Although he saw the first part of his season cut short with an infection in late October that saw him miss nine games, he was a rotational piece in their offence prior to that and will look to go one better and make himself a starter this spring and beyond.
Amady Camara Radar Map
Similarly to Jatta, he’s a high-ranking dribbler among forwards within his rank and is easily the best technically of all four options on this list based on his possession metrics.
He’s also capable of playing across the attack on both wings and beneath a traditional centre-forward, making him a versatile option.
Where things may fall short for him, though, is in his end product, as he’s only scored twice in forty first-team appearances for Sturm.
Judging by the data above regarding his goal contributions and involvement in opposing boxes, albeit from a small sample size, it seems uncertain that the 19-year-old is ready to carry the attack for a title-challenging outfit.
Perhaps further down the line, with more reps and experience, he will be, but compared to Jatta and Mayulu, he does seem very much a third-string option, at least as far as this season is concerned, to take over that mantle.
Option 4: Leon Grgić (19 years old)
The last recognised striker in the running for that berth, a 19-year-old Austrian youth international, Leon Grgić.
Grgić is easily the least experienced option here with only just over a hundred minutes of senior football under his belt, but what he does have to his advantage is his sky-high confidence in front of goal this season at different levels.
He’s scored twelve times in all competitions this season for Sturm at U19, reserve, and senior level, part of which has made him one of the top scorers in the UEFA Youth League.
And interestingly, although he’s only played eighty-five minutes in the Bundesliga, he’s actually managed to score three goals, which is a cap in his feather when it comes to this argument around the starting centre-forward position.
Leon Grgić Radar Map
Although the radar map above mostly highlights his work at the youth level this year, which is far from different from senior top-level football, his attacking metrics are very impressive and well-rounded.
He has made a great return in terms of goal contributions and is highly ranked in dribbling.
Like Camara, though, Grgić is still more likely to be a long-term project for the club than an imminent solution to this position.
However, if the others ahead of him in the pecking order aren’t able to hit the ground running, perhaps he will get his chance sooner rather han later to show what he can do.
Jusuf Gazibegović Replacement (Right-Back)
Moving on to the other position where Sturm lost a key part of their team at right-back, it is arguably just as interesting to see how they will move on from a player who had made that position his over the course of nearly half a decade after his arrival at the club in 2020.
Gazibegović also became a full-fledged international player at the club, with twenty-one caps amassed for the Bosnia & Herzegovina senior national team while at Sturm.
Jusuf Gazibegović Radar Map
Looking at his data profile, it’s evident how important he was to Sturm Graz, with his possession and attacking metrics ranking quite well.
At the same time, his duels won percentages outranked the duels faced per 90 minutes on average and a solid rank in terms of his positioning as well.
Jusuf Gazibegović Progressive Passes Map
His progressive passing abilities are a key aspect of his game, and his radar map supports this.
The data visualisation above allows us to examine this further.
Although his end product isn’t the most consistent, which is perhaps why he didn’t make a move to the atop-five5 league club right away, he was an important protagonist for Sturm on the ball as well.
He converted to full-back from his youth days as a winger and found a lot of success in Graz doing so.
So, there are some shoes to fill for those that remain.
Given that Sturm didn’t sign a direct replacement in the window, it’s clear that they feel they already have a player who can step up and take on this role.
And with three options to choose from, let’s look at who they are.
Option 1: Max Johnston (21 years old)
On paper, the most likely option is the Scotsman, who has been a rotational player and, at times, even a starter when Gazibegović was around since arriving at the club in the summer of 2023.
Max Johnston Radar Map
Johnston’s success rate in defensive and aerial duels, which vastly exceeds the volume of duels faced on average, makes him a good choice from a defensive perspective.
His metrics in the other categories are respectable, albeit not on the same level as Gazibegović’s.
As mentioned, though, he has had spells where he’s even displaced the Bosnian in the lineup or when Gazibegović moved to the other side, so he has some obvious qualifications to make this position his now.
The current problem for Johnston, though, is that he’s starting the second half of the season out injured with a muscle problem, which has allowed the next player the opportunity to take that role and, on the evidence so far, it might not be easy for Johnston to return and just easily win back.
Option 2: Arjan Malić (19 years old)
The player in name above is Arjan Malić, who has also decided to represent Bosnia internationally despite being born abroad, just like Gazibegović was.
Although naturally a centre-back, he can fill in at both defensive midfield and right-back, the latter position where he’s getting his first-team breakthrough now following his summer arrival from SV Ried.
So far, he’s exceeded expectations, starting every game after the winter break and even scoring a winning goal in a man-of-the-match performance against RB Leipzig in the UEFA Champions League a couple of weeks ago.
Arjan Malić Radar Map
Although his radar map above shows his brief time in the reserve team in the 2. Liga and his recent first-team performances have not been collected yet; given the circumstances, it’s easy to see why he’s been given the chance to be the starting right-back.
His defensive metrics are the best of the bunch here, with positioning and aerial duels won ranking exceptionally high, which is unsurprising for a natural 6’1″centre-back.
But his progressive passing and dribbling abilities also catch the eye.
He ranks in a very high percentile among other young players in his position in Austria, making him adept at playing out wide.
He is a versatile, well-rounded player both on and off the ball.
He has a bright future, and given his recent performances, it seems the future may even be now.
Whether he’ll keep his place when Johnston returns remains to be seen, but for now, he’s staking a good claim on himself to do so.
Option 3: Emanuel Aiwu (24 years old)
The last player in contention for the right-back position is the most experienced option of the three, 24-year-old centre-back Emanuel Aiwu.
Emanuel Aiwu Radar Map
Although Aiwu almost exclusively plays in the club’s centre of defence, he can play out wide on the right.
Looking at his radar map, his ability to progress and accurately pass the ball is decent enough to make him worth considering as an option.
That being said, barring further injuries to the options they already have there, it’s unlikely that he will move across to cover that position, but it’s still worth noting him given the advantage of experience he has on both Malić and Johnston, especially in such a close title race where pressure and stakes will get higher with each game.
Conclusion
As we’ve covered in this article, Sturm Graz had a couple of significant departures in the winter window, which left gaps and questions that need to be filled and answered now that the second half of the season is underway in Austria.
With the title up for grabs and no other distractions, the focus now will be on retaining the title they won back for the first time in thirteen years last campaign.
How they deal with the losses of Mika Biereth and Jusuf Gazibegović will be key to that.
While there are elements on the pitch they will find hard to replace like-for-like that the pair offered to them, it’s a great opportunity for some young, talented guys to step up and make the difference for them, as well as making a name for themselves in their fledgling careers.
