There will be no embargoes. Putin can afford this war anyway, argues the vice-chancellor of Germany in an interview with Business Insider

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  1. A ban on the import of Russian energy resources, primarily oil and gas and then coal, has been a firm demand of the Polish government. Germany argues that a possible embargo on Russian energy resources would be ineffective. In an interview with Business Insider, Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck presents Berlin’s arguments in this matter.

    Mateusz Morawiecki was building a coalition of countries in our region that called on the European Commission to immediately implement an embargo in order to cut Moscow off from the billions of euros that feed into the Russian Federation’s budget every year. However, the Polish prime minister was confronted with economic realities and cold calculations of the EU’s largest economy, Germany, supported by several smaller countries like Austria and Hungary. Germany is trying to convince that a possible embargo on Russian oil and gas would be ineffective, insanely expensive, and, most importantly, of little relevance to the ability to conduct military operations on Ukrainian territory and fund the Russian war machine. Business Insider was the only Polish editorial invited for a brief interview with the man in charge of Berlin’s economic policy in the new German government. The vice-chancellor, minister for economy and climate protection, argues that Russia can bear the burden of waging war in Ukraine without the billions of euros it has received over the years from energy exports

    We are not directly financing this war by buying Russian fuel. The Russian military machine functions well because of its own resources. The Russians are able to produce tanks, weapons and supplies for the army thanks to their own resources. They don’t need dollars or euros to finance the war machine,” Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck argued at a meeting with our editorial board. In his opinion, the Russian arms industry can settle accounts in roubles, and the possibilities of the central bank in this area are practically unlimited, which allows the government in Moscow to acquire any amount of local currency.

    However, there is no doubt that for Moscow, which is almost completely cut off from Western markets, the injection of hard currency is one of the key elements of the economic basis for waging war. According to the Financial Times, every year Russia pumps 150 billion cubic meters of gas to the European markets through its pipelines, and the largest consumers of blue fuel are our western neighbors. Still at the turn of 2021/22 it seemed, that these volumes will grow quickly thanks to the commissioning of the second line of Nord Stream gas pipeline bypassing Ukraine and Poland.

    The war changed everything. Speaking to Business Insider Poland, Germany’s economy minister not only confirmed a 180-degree turn from Berlin’s recent raw materials doctrine, but also pointed to specific targets for reducing dependence on Russia and key dates for such a timetable.

    – In the last four weeks we have reduced our dependence on Russian gas from 55 percent to 40 percent. We have reduced our dependence on Russian fuel imports from 35 percent to 25 percent. Further progress will be made soon,” Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck announced in an interview. He added that the reduction of Russian coal imports has already made it possible to reduce dependence on the supply of this raw material from the East from 50 percent to 25 percent.

    – We expect to become independent from Russian coal during the summer of 2022, and certainly by the fall. We expect that by the end of the year we will be operating without Russian fuels, and in the course of the summer we will significantly reduce our dependence – said Robert Habeck. He added that in the case of gas, independence from Russian supplies should be possible by the summer of 2024.

    It is obvious that after years of trying to appease the regime of Vladimir Putin and signing lucrative agreements with Gazprom and fuel companies indirectly controlled by Russian oligarchs, the price Europeans would have to pay for cutting Moscow off from the EU market would be gigantic. However, it is worth considering to what extent the financial markets have already taken such a scenario into account in the gigantic increases in oil and gas prices that we have been observing since autumn 2021. Another, perhaps more important question, is whether in view of the crimes committed against the civilian population of Ukraine, this is not a price we should all pay?

    If we were confident that our sanctions and embargo on non-renewable energy sources would stop the war immediately or within a week, I would have absolutely no hesitation in imposing a total embargo. I’m sure we could do it, and my country would easily last a week without Russian imports, maybe even a month – this is how the German Minister of Economics and Climate Protection answers our question on the matter.

    Robert Habeck stresses that when announcing sanctions or embargoes, be consistent. Be ready for a long march. You can’t take a step back after a few months without achieving the desired effect, which in this case would have to be an end to the Russian invasion.

    – We have to be prepared to keep these sanctions in place for years. And we should not allow Putin to triumph that our sanctions are not producing the results we expected, so we will remove them, for example, after a month. Such a situation would be a triumph that we should not give to Putin,” the vice-chancellor argues

    In this way the economic mission of the president of the United States, addressed to the partners of the European Union, who for obvious reasons find it much easier to agree on immediate elimination of Russian oil or gas from the market, ended up with a rather vague formula of establishing a working group which is to work out a common plan of gradual independence of the old continent from Russian supplies. At the same time, the Americans seem to be doing good business, providing their producers of liquefied natural gas with an attractive EU market with guarantees of sale at the level of 50 billion cubic meters per year.

    Robert Habeck – born on 2 September 1969 in Lübeck. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister in the government of Schleswig-Holstein from 2012 to 2018. Since 2018, co-leader of the Greens. He won a seat in the Bundestag in the 2021 election. After this election, the Greens led by him formed a government coalition with the Social Democratic Party of Germany and the Free Democratic Party. In December 2021, in the newly formed government of Olaf Scholz, he took up the posts of Vice-Chancellor and Minister for the Economy and Climate Protection.

  2. Germany is the biggest obstacle to European unity. Many times at the beginning I wrote that Germany will cooperate with Russia, but Reddit users wrote that I am breaking European unity. This is a country that would love to see Ukraine lose, because finally they could do business with the Kremlin. Every day the German government shows its true face. On Reddit, it is enough for Germans to send 500 panzerfausts to Ukraine and they are already great heroes.

  5. Certainly a take. Even if true, it’d definitely help them afford the next war just as it made this one and the last two possible.

  6. He is wrong. Russian economy does not function on its own, cannot produce their own tanks or aircraft without imported machines and materials.

  9. I have to say German politicians are starting to sound like Trump the way they’re contorting themselves to keep relations with Putin.

  10. As long as German industry can in any way be harmed or German markets they will not do anything.

    Germany first, second and third has been their devise for a long time.

    No hard decisions to stop imports before they know they secured imports from USA and others.

    In every conflict they are always reactive and always after securing a minimum impact on themselves first.

    They are never proactive and hence should never be considered in any way leaders of Europe.

  11. Oh, so when he will also posting that Germany (the one from his economical vision) can afford to pay for coffins for children killed in Ukraine, as economy triumphs over everything? Or it will only apply to next country Russia will decide to ”save” with those funds in ”Special Operation”?

  12. Something that should also not be underestimated. The most valuable region affected by the embargo might be the former GDR which has big support by die Linke & Afd (both kind of pro-russian/anti-anti-usa).

    Fueling these tensions midget open another chapter in the Russian playbook, a separation movement in the East of Germany.

    Also, it might help Le Pen in France (if Macron was on the frontline demanding the embargo).

    So vetoing the embargo and being the sacrificial sheep of blame might be a smart move if you already have a bad reputation on the topic.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/pvxz1a/election_results_of_german_parties_afd_and_die/

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