Munich, Germany – The western alliance supporting Ukraine was steady for three years – and then Donald Trump got involved.
A flurry of mixed messages on both sides of the Atlantic marked the past week, triggering deep doubts over the sustainability of the West’s commitment to Kyiv.
The US defence secretary, who sent Europeans scrambling with his abrasive comments on Wednesday in Brussels, said on Friday in Warsaw that Europe would “probably” be involved in talks to end the war in Ukraine.
A very different message is implicit in the fact that Donald Trump has yet to call a single European ally not named Zelenskyy about the peace talks.
JD Vance’s speech on Friday, in which he said the biggest threat facing Europe came “from within”, was at least explicit.
The Munich Security Conference has for decades has been a forum for sharp, even tense, security debate between both sides of the Atlantic. Even Trump’s first-term vice president, Mike Pence, made efforts to reassure Europeans of American support.
But Washington’s allies were aghast when the new vice president used his Munich debut to deliver an anti-European tirade.
Before heading to Munich, Vance had told the Wall Street Journal the US would have “economic and military tools of leverage” should Russia not agree to a satisfactory peace deal with Ukraine.
But in his sermon on Europe’s forgotten “fundamental values” he made almost no mention of the war.
“Listening to that speech, they try to pick a fight with us, and we don’t want to a pick a fight with our friends,” Kaja Kallas, the EU’s top diplomat, said after Vance spoke.
“We have to realise that we’re looking at a new United States, perhaps one that has less and less to do with the Marvel hero we have seen it as in the past,” another European diplomat said.
A former US diplomat recalled dry laughs from attendees in one of the main listening rooms outside the packed main conference hall when Vance mentioned the US and Europe’s ‘shared’ values.
“Those used to include that we agree what our common security threats are. Senator [John] McCain must be turning in his grave,” this person said.
Ukraine’s brave face
A meeting between the US delegation, led by Vance, and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that took place on the margins in Munich on Friday late afternoon offered no further clarity for Europe.
Shortly before sitting down with Trump’s entourage in the basement of a five-star hotel in Munich, Zelenskyy said he would only agree to meet in person with Putin after a common plan is negotiated with Trump.
The 40-minute meeting produced no major announcements and few assurances.
“Fundamentally, the goal is as President Trump outlined it: We want the war to come to a close,” Vance said afterwards.
“We want the killings to stop – not the kind of peace that’s going to have Eastern Europe in conflict just a couple of years down the road,” he added.
Vance also said the conversation would continue and be “moved forward” without offering any further details on how and when.
Zelenskyy thanked Vance for the talks but stressed they needed to “speak more, work more and stop Putin”, but any next steps could not happen without addressing the “need for real security guarantees.”
Wondering what’s next
Europeans, meanwhile, are expected to rally around the flag in the coming days to try and come up with a more weighty response. The question is what they can really offer.
Several European diplomats in Munich told Euractiv it might be time for Europe to draw up a strategy of its own in the event US efforts – as one diplomat put it – “go sideways”.
“We need to find a common position, and quickly, otherwise we risk our voice either not being heard or being only an appendix to a deal being made for us,” one of the diplomats said.
European foreign ministers are also expected to meet on Saturday in a so-called Quint-format – including the United States, France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom – as well as in a G7 format, adding Japan and Canada.
Trump’s special envoy on Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, is expected to visit Brussels early next week before touring NATO countries to gauge their positions,
French President Emmanuel Macron, who has not-so-subtly put himself forward to lead European engagement with Trump on Ukraine, said he spoke with Zelenskyy on Friday evening.
“If President Donald Trump can truly convince President Putin to stop the aggression against Ukraine, that is great news,” he said on X.
“Then, it will be the Ukrainians alone who can drive the discussions for a solid and lasting peace. We will help them in this endeavour.”
[OM, mk]