When I started in this field nearly 11 years ago, you’d never write an article about a storm five-to-six days away. Times have changed.
You see things on your phone’s app or on social media, and then we get asked about the validity.
It’d be irresponsible of us now to stay completely silent.
All that said, let’s give you the short version right off the bat.
TL;DR (Too long; don’t read)
Yes. There is the potential for wintry weather in North Carolina on Wednesday, February 19 into early Thursday, February 20.
No. We don’t know exactly how much your town is going to see five-to-six days out.
Keep reading below to see what we’re tracking, what the possible scenarios are and when we expect to know more.
What we’re tracking
There is a storm system that, as of Saturday morning, is 3,750 miles away from Raleigh. It’s currenty south of Alaska’s Aleutian Islands over the Pacific Ocean.
Where Wednesday’s storm is as of Saturday, 2/15/2025This storm dives southward and travels across the United States next week, while marginally cold air sits in place in the Eastern U.S.
This pattern lends us to the potential for winter weather around Wednesday, February 19, 2025.
Because our cold air isn’t as deep as it was this past January, it means that there likely be a zone of mixed precipitation.
The next storm likely brings winter weather to the Carolinas February 19-20, 2025Figuring out where that mix will be vs. rain vs. snow all comes down to the storm’s location and strength.
The possible scenarios
When looking at potential wintry weather days out, you will often find that data starts with a storm track farther south. As the days go on, it tends to pull the system farther northwest. I’ve seen this happen countless times in the decade (plus) that I’ve been forecasting in the Mid-Atlantic.
The storm track is crucial.
1. In this case, a storm that rides the Appalachians would result in a cold rain here.
2. A storm that rides the coast would put us in a zone of sleet and freezing rain.
3. A system more offshore would result in more snow.
Potential storm paths around February 19, 2025Based off that, I would be surprised if we saw a full-on snowstorm. We rarely do anyways in North Carolina.
When should we know more?
Because the storm is in the Pacific Ocean, it’s hard for anything to really sample it for data. That changes, however, once it comes on land near Washington state Sunday night/Monday morning.
Weather balloons that get launched into the storm will collect data. That data will get fed into the models we use as guidance, hopefully making them clearer and more accurate.