Scottish Labour is heading for its worst Holyrood election result since devolution, in a devastating reversal of fortune after July’s landslide — which had appeared to put its leader, Anas Sarwar, on course for Bute House.

The Norstat poll for The Sunday Times also revealed that more people in Scotland thought Donald Trump was a good leader than thought the same of Sir Keir Starmer or Kemi Badenoch. John Swinney was more popular than either Sarwar or Russell Findlay, the Scottish Tory leader.

Headline VI:

Constituency:

SNP: 35%

LAB: 18%

CON: 15%

REF: 14%

LDM: 11%

GRN: 6%

List:

SNP: 30%

LAB: 17%

CON: 15%

REF: 13%

LDM: 11%

GRN: 10%

ALBA: 4%

Seats:

SNP: 55

CON: 18

LAB: 18

REF: 15

LDM: 13

GRN: 10

Pro-independence majority of 1.

Independence VI:

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Yes: 50%

🇬🇧 No: 50%

Professor Sir John Curtice laid much of the blame for Scottish Labour’s decline on Starmer’s exceptionally poor start in Downing Street and said that Reform UK was fracturing the Unionist vote. “Anas Sarwar’s hopes of becoming Scotland’s next first minister are, it seems, fading fast,” he said.

With the SNP on course to win nearly three-quarters of the constituency seats, he said: “Holyrood could still find itself with a majority of pro-independence MSPs even though well under half of voters had backed a pro-independence party. Such an outcome would leave Labour’s hopes of putting Scotland’s constitutional debate to bed in tatters.”

Westminster seat projection:

SNP: 38 (+29)

LAB: 8 (-29)

LDM: 6 (-)

CON: 5 (-)

Archive.

by 1DarkStarryNight

22 comments

  1. Labour’s collapse in popularity has been quite breathtaking.

  2. The conventional wisdom is that the Abla and Reform vote will depress as we close in on the date. It’s what Abla, who has underperformed polling and as far as I’m aware has never won anything, has done in the past and what UKIP/brexit party did in the past in Scotland (although UKIP suffered less from that in EU parly votes)

  3. They absolutely deserve defeat.

    They’ve done nothing differently to the Tories and have only doubled down on misery and austerity.

  5. All I want is nobody close to a majority. Back to normal Holyrood please.

    Although a libdem surge would be great.

  6. People voted for change and Labour said sure, let us change into the Tories with a dash of Reform

  7. Labour are really unpleasant.

    I also don’t think they have any ambition for Scotland- they just want Scots to sit down, shut up and obey.

    I really hope they get fucking wiped out at the next election – but we are probably not going to be that fortunate.

  8. I reluctantly voted labour at the GE purely based on the shit show in the last couple years from the SNP, I won’t be making that mistake again. Honestly there’s no good options. I just feel totally alienated by all the main parties at this point.

  9. This can’t be real so stupid of labour to give up like this show some fight FFS

  10. What’s weird about the last election is that Labour didn’t win because of a growth in their vote, but because of small reduction in the Tory vote and split of the rest into the Reform party.

    It truly was a weird one last time.

  11. Personally I can’t believe 18% will still vote for them.

  13. Deserve everything they get. They’re having their shite pushed in by Farage lol.

    Encouraging the ‘ulsterisation’ of Scottish politics always ran the risk of this happening.

    Wankers, leave it up to the rest of us to keep the fash in check.

  14. Polls are nonsense. It’s over a year away from the election. Maybe a small snap shot of where things stand at the time but not worth getting excited about. It’s not the result. Who are they even asking for these polls..no one I know!

  15. Get it right up them

    SNP regardless of crisis or at their weakest still treating the rest as they are

    Elitist, establishment, entitled wee rich boys from down South

    We’re far too sensible as a population to let another country control our democracy

    Including the Unionists who want a family of nations, not branch managers controlling Scotland for England

    Think about how bad you need to be, how incompetent & how much you need to hate Scotland that you get a majority vote & power for the first time in ages and do… nothing

    They seem not to care about their own greed & power let alone us

  16. “BLOW for independence as the Nationalists fail to win every seat” – every single news outlet the next day after the election.

  18. They will likely switch back to Labour at the next general election as a way of keeping Reform out and Farage from being PM.

  20. If you look at the by-elections, you’d see this is nonsense. People feel a bit uneasy with Labour currently, but when push comes to shove, they choose Labour over the SNP.

    By 2026, Starmer’s teething issues will have subsided, and Labour will be well ahead in the polls.

    Mark my words, the next First Minister of Scotland will be Anas Sarwar.

  22. The wording of that headline for a minute had me worried the cheeto king was popular in Scotland until I saw the polling results

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