Winter storm becoming more likely in North Carolina mid-week

When I started in this field nearly 11 years ago, you’d never write an article about a storm four-to-five days away. Times have changed.

You see things on your phone’s app or on social media, and then we get asked about the validity.

It’d be irresponsible of us now to stay completely silent.

All that said, let’s give you the short version right off the bat.

TL;DR (Too long; don’t read)

Yes. There is the increased chance for a winter storm in North Carolina on Wednesday, February 19 into early Thursday, February 20.

No. We don’t know exactly how much your town is going to see four-to-five days out.

Keep reading below to see what we’re tracking, what the possible scenarios are and when we expect to know more.

What we’re tracking

There is a storm system that, as of Sunday morning, is 3,200 miles away from Raleigh. It’s currenty south of Alaska’s Aleutian Islands over the Pacific Ocean.

Wednesday’s storm is 3,200 miles away as of Sunday morning

This storm dives southward and travels across the United States next week, while marginally cold air sits in place in the Eastern U.S.

This pattern lends us to the increased chance of an impactful winter storm around Wednesday, February 19, 2025.

Because our cold air isn’t as deep as it was this past January, it means that there likely be a zone of mixed precipitation.

Next winter storm likely to come Wednesday, 2/19/2025

Figuring out where that mix will be – rain vs. snow – all comes down to the storm’s location and strength. That said, it’s good to prepare ahead of time for potential travel impacts Wednesday and Thursday.

The possible scenarios

When looking at potential wintry weather days out, you will often find that data starts with a storm track farther south. As the days go on, it tends to pull the system farther northwest. I’ve seen this happen countless times in the decade (plus) that I’ve been forecasting in the Mid-Atlantic.

The storm track is crucial.

1. In this case, a storm that rides the Appalachians would result in a cold rain here.

2. A storm that rides the coast would put us in a zone of sleet and freezing rain.

3. A stronger system more offshore would result in more snow.

The possible scenarios with Wednesday’s winter storm

Based off that, I would be surprised if we saw a full-on snowstorm from the Triangle southward. We rarely do anyways in North Carolina.

When should we know more?

Because the storm is in the Pacific Ocean, it’s hard for anything to really sample it for data. That changes, however, once it comes on land near Washington state Sunday night/Monday morning.

Weather balloons that get launched into the storm will collect data. That data will get fed into the models we use as guidance, hopefully making them clearer and more accurate.