The Trump card: What could US abandonment of Europe look like?

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1. Submission statement: The latest actions of the Trump 2.0 administration have heightened fears about a dwindling US commitment to Europe. But US abandonment could manifest in different ways – as a bargaining chip or as a policy goal. To prepare for all possible scenarios, the EU and its Member States must invest in a strong European deterrent force.

2. Bit dramatic to put US abandonment of Europe on par with a nuclear strike on Europe, lol. Stopped reading after that.

3. Every single ally that America had is abandoning America. What will that look like.

4. > Second, the EU should support the development of collective capabilities at European level: these include strategic enablers – strategic airlift, air-to-air refuelling, operational intelligence and air defences – that are necessary to transform capabilities into active fighting power. 

   Treating this as if it was a no-brainer. Europe has historically never been able to develop that united fighting capacity without breaking up around strategic rifts, and this is already visible between Germany and France. 

   NATO and the American presence in Europe have been essential to remove the desire for an hegemonic power within Europe. Remove that presence and that rift will come back. 

     
   Without NATO, any high intensity conflict between a EU member and another power would lead in months to a rift within the EU. Ukraine shows that mechanism and it’s bound to go way worse. 

5. Trump’s US is not abandoning “Europe”. He is splitting the EU and marking out who will be “saved” and who will be left to Putin. Brexit UK will realise / recognize/ admit these are its own goals too. Trump needs NATO to continue the extortion racket he wants to set up. There’s no point paying him unless there’s protection and there’s only protection for those in the gang. He needs European countries dependent not autonomous.

   What will it look like? Ukraine will be divided by US and Russia. Europe will be unable to fund the war on its own and countries hosting UKR refugees will want them gone to reduce public spending and divert funding, possibly to defence. Putin, if he survives in power, will want to move quickly to further weaken the EU. Ideally Trump will provoke some grounds to withdraw or qualify support for some Eastern European countries as Russia wants its 1997 borders and NATO members post 1997 expelled / bypassed in new “security architecture”. That may be part of a deal (oligarch ad oligarch loquitur) in the background.

   Essentially European countries and their populations are bargaining chips for Trump. Which remains true as long as the US controls EU defence.

   Poland needs nukes. They know this.

6. Abandonment of Europe? Trump is literally taking time out of his busy schedule away from USA domestic politics to fly around Europe to solve a European problem that the Europeans couldn’t solve themselves.

   He’s literally having to babysit them to solve their problems. Pretty much the opposite of abandonment. It’s pretty sad and pathetic that the Europeans have to be babied like this though. They’re already throwing their toys out of the pram.

7. There won’t be a full abandonment.

   The US *needs* its military bases in Europe. And if the US doesn’t want to work together with the US anymore then yes, Europe should kick them out.

   Also, people forget that Europe has at least 2 very capable militarys with France and the UK.

   Germany could be a capable military aswell.

   Poland and Greece are absolutely not to be underestimated.

   The other european countries need to ramp up their military capabilities that’s still true.

   However, France is currently the only country besides the US that has the capabilities to fight multiple wars at the same time on different continents. And they are the only nation besides the US to have a nuclear powered aircraft carrier.

   The UK is building new big aircraft carriers.

   France is currently the 3rd biggest nuclear power in the world and they never got rid of their military industrial complex.

   Russia maybe is a threat, but it doesn’t matter whether the US leaves Europe or not. A war with them would mean total anhilation of both, with or without the US.

   Maybe Russia would be encouraged to attack the baltics, but then what? It would be total war with no winner, it would not matter whether Europe or Russia would be pushed into the corner, if that would happen, either side would use their nukes, because why not at that point?

   But this would also happen with the US.

   So the main duty has to be, to deter Russia enough, so that this wouldn’t happen.

   With other words, at least 50k european troops in the east of europe with at least 400-500 tanks. Old and new ones.

   That’s sounds like a lot but it’s definitely possible. Greece alone has about 1400 MBT.

8. What Trump has given up on is a Democratic Europe, and he’ll be back when it becomes ruled by his right-wing allies.

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