Erdogan says Ukraine’s territorial integrity, sovereignty indisputable for Turkey

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1. In a recent statement, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reaffirmed Turkey’s unwavering support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, declaring them “indisputable” in Ankara’s view. This declaration underscores Turkey’s consistent position against Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its ongoing military actions in Ukraine. Erdoğan’s remarks were made during a joint news conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who had postponed his visit to Saudi Arabia to avoid any perception of sidelining Ukraine in peace discussions. Zelenskyy emphasized that any negotiations to end the war must include Ukraine, highlighting the necessity of involving the United States, Ukraine, and Europe in discussions about security guarantees for Kyiv. 

2. This is not a surprise since Turkey is in a complicated relationship with russia since like ever.

3. This makes sense at least from a Turkish strategic perspective and is consistent with what they have said in last decade or so.

   Turkey is worried about the situation in the Black Sea. They have always pushed for a power-balanced situation there. If Ukraine’s Black Sea parts like Crimea and the southern coastline are swallowed up by Russia, it would mean Ukraine is defacto landlocked and Turkey suddenly looses a strategic balancing partner against Russia in the north.

   Turkey has energy relations with Russia and an expanding Russia in the Black Sea would take away leverage from Turkish hands. Ukraine was always a balancing military factor against Russia and both are major trading powers that export their grains through the Black Sea including to areas of concern for Turkey like Syria and Lebanon

   The Black Sea would turn into a defacto Russian sea in the North as Bulgaria and Romania are only minor military powers and Georgia is under Russian influence and also not really a power on the sea.

   Turkey would be quite lonely there, would find itself in the uncomfortable position of being the sole NATO power that needs to decide how much outside NATO presence it should let in from the outside in case of friction with Russia. This is risky and turns the Black Sea into an active conflict territory instead of a more balanced area for Ankara.

   It would also have to dedicate much more resources to the Black Sea, which means Turkey would have to split their attention away from the Mediterranean Sea and the South, limiting their projection power towards Syria and Cyprus.

4. Turkey is arguably Ukraine’s best bet right now (from their perspective, neither Europe nor the US are exactly reliable). Play one revisionist power off the other, especially since Turkey has regional ambitions.

5. Is Turkey gonna lead the troops to keep the peace? Really?

6. Once Ukraine is handed over, the sheep costume is ripped off and burned. It is truly just a matter of who is next.

7. Smart move by Erdogan, in my opinion. He has regional hegemonic ambitions, one rival—Iran—is in the tornadic throes of Israeli countermeasures, their war-torn southern neighbor—Syria—may actually be stabilizing, the US is not only politically (and maybe economically soon) imploding but also has utterly annihilated its credibility as a diplomatic partner, and Europe may at long last be waking up from its long slumber (though I shackle my optimism here). Who better to stand at the crossroads between the West and the East than Turkey, in Erdogan’s eyes.

   Historically, the Turks and the Russians have had a minor spat or two over the Crimean peninsula with some European intervention before. Luckily, all that one particular 19th-century kerfuffle did was set the geopolitical stage for the period of incomparably-horrific warfare that opened the 20th century. So no pressure on the negotiations, I guess.

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