Quantum Commodity Intelligence – Crude oil futures in Asian trading hours Wednesday extended the week’s firmer tone as supply side concerns came back into to focus.

Front-month Apr25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $76.06/b (0700 GMT) versus Tuesday’s settle of $75.84/b.

At the same time Apr25 NYMEX WTI was at $72.06/b, compared to Tuesday’s close of $71.83/b, while Mar25 was trading at $72.10/b.

Benchmarks were lifted during the early part of the week after a drone strike damaged a pumping station that is critical for piping Kazakh and Russian crude to Novorossiysk.

Operator Transneft warned crude flows through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) could fall by as much as 30% for up to two months, which has capacity to transit 1.4 million bpd to the Black Sea.

Elsewhere, the extended freeze across the US has again shut-in production, as the North Dakota Pipeline Authority said output was down by around 150,000 bpd in the number three producing state.

OPEC+

Speculation over OPEC+ continued to heat up after reports that the group is considering a further postponement in planned production increases, which would be a fourth delay.

There has been no official comment so far from senior OPEC+ figures, but unnamed delegates have been quoted saying that the state of the global economy and oil dynamics are too fragile to risk an increase now.

Under current plans the group will unwind around 2.2 million bpd between April 2025 and September 2026, starting with a relatively modest increase of 138,000 bpd.

Elsewhere, traders were monitoring the impact of tighter sanctions on Russian crude, while threats to Iranian and Venezuelan exports were also lending support.

Preliminary talks to find a peace deal on the Ukraine war were seen as potentially leading to a softening of sanctions over the longer term, but Russia’s commitment to OPEC+ means the prospect for more oil is remote.

“We believe that Russia crude oil production is constrained by its OPEC+ 9 million barrels per day production target rather than current sanctions, which are affecting the destination but not the volume of oil exports,” said Goldman Sachs in a recent report.