U.S.

The U.S. is set to become the largest LNG exporter in the world, producing more than a third of global LNG supply by 2030, according to J.P. Morgan Research estimates. “The country has gone from effectively producing zero LNG in 2015 to 86 million tons in 2023, with more projects in various stages of construction underway,” said Tarek Hamid, head of North American Corporate Credit Research at J.P. Morgan.

The natural gas boom in the U.S. is in part due to low construction costs and a skilled labor pool — factors conducive to the buildout of new LNG facilities. “Another benefit is the safety, surety and security of U.S. LNG molecules versus other molecules that are located in or forced to traverse transportation bottlenecks in the Middle East,” Hamid said.

In addition, natural gas prices in the U.S. are pegged to Henry Hub, a distribution point in Louisiana that functions as the physical settlement location for futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange. “This provides diversification benefits in global LNG portfolios relative to Brent-based pricing,” Hamid noted. 

Australia

While Australia has grown to become the second largest LNG-producing nation in the world over the last decade, the outlook for the industry is challenging. Historically, the domestic market has been supplied by offshore gas reserves in Victoria. However, these fields are now mature, and production is expected to decrease.

Over on the west coast, the country’s largest LNG plant is also in decline, exacerbating supply-side issues. This has led to the government growing concerned about meeting domestic demand and imposing regulations on LNG exporters in order to protect domestic consumers.  

In addition, the government reformed its Safeguard Mechanism in 2023 — legislation aimed at reducing emissions at Australia’s largest industrial facilities. Under this policy, existing oil and gas projects are obligated to reduce emissions from a baseline, while new projects will be benchmarked against industry best practices, which will likely limit any LNG capacity growth in Australia.

Middle East

Despite the region’s vast hydrocarbon sources, there are only three LNG exporting countries in the Middle East — Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman.

“Currently, Qatar accounts for ~82% of the region’s liquefaction capacity, and is among the top three players in the global LNG market,” said Otar Dgebuadze, part of the Global Commodities Research team at J.P. Morgan. The country exported ~105 Bcm of LNG in 2024, making it the third biggest supplier globally after the U.S. and Australia.

Plans for additional LNG facilities are underway, with two projects scheduled to come online before 2030, and a potential third facility in consideration. These three projects will increase Qatar’s LNG capacity by ~85%, resulting in the production capacity of ~195 Bcm/year by the end of the decade.