A Syrian rebel fighter (C) looks on as he stands at an inspection checkpoint for incoming vehicles … [+] before a Russian flag and Russian soldiers behind manning the entrance of the Russian-leased Syrian military base of Hmeimim in Latakia province in western Syria on December 29, 2024. (Photo by AAREF WATAD / AFP) (Photo by AAREF WATAD/AFP via Getty Images)

AFP via Getty Images

From the moment Russia evacuated President Bashar al-Assad on Dec. 8, 2024, the fate of its two coastal bases in Syria came into question as Islamist-led opposition forces it had once relentlessly bombed on his behalf took power. Today, there are early signs that Moscow could reach a deal with the new authorities in Damascus, potentially allowing it to retain its strategic foothold in Syria.

Sources cited by Bloomberg on Tuesday estimate that Russia could potentially retain a reduced military presence in Hmeimim airbase and Tartus naval base in western Syria, a move that would avert an otherwise humiliating withdrawal for Moscow. The sources say Russia is close to a deal with the new Syrian government to keep some military personnel and hardware in the country. They also suggested that Russia could help Damascus combat ISIS remnants and that its continued military presence could counterbalance Turkey, which appears well-positioned to replace Moscow’s traditional role as Syria’s main arms supplier.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday that Russia plans to hold high-level contacts with Syria soon.

It’s doubtful Russia will have anything nearly as favorable as the 49-year lease and immunity for its actions in the country it enjoyed under Assad, who, in 2023, said he would welcome more Russian troops and bases on Syrian soil. Damascus could now impose stringent limits on how many troops Russia can deploy and the number and types of aircraft and warships Russia can land and dock at those bases at any given time.

Still, Moscow would undoubtedly prefer renegotiated basing rights over an ignominious withdrawal, which would complicate future deployments of its navy in the Mediterranean and supporting its forces in Africa.

The prospect of Russia helping Syria against ISIS is also noteworthy. Russian warplanes carried out intermittent airstrikes against suspected ISIS militants in the Syrian Desert for many years. These strikes continued into the final weeks of Assad’s rule.

Until recently, Russian Sukhoi fighter-bombers taking off from Hmeimim would fly to neighboring Idlib province and relentlessly bomb the fighters that make up the now-victorious Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and kill and maim untold numbers of innocent civilians. It’s not inconceivable that in the not-too-distant future, those same Sukhoi jets could take off and provide air support to those very same HTS fighters, albeit now fighting in the state security forces. That could go a long way in building trust between the former opponents, which could, in turn, bode well for the future of Russia’s presence there.

There are already indications that HTS and ordinary Syrians are much more open to working with Russia despite its past actions under Assad than the deposed dictator’s other primary supporter, Iran.

“Russians were dropping bombs from the sky and other than that, they were in their bases while Iranians and their militias were on the ground interacting,” a HTS fighter recently recalled to BBC. “People were feeling their presence, and many weren’t happy with it.”

Any future Russian presence will likely remain restricted to the coast. Additionally, Russia will likely require Syrian authorization for any military flights inside Syrian airspace or beyond the coast, never mind airstrikes, which will most likely remain restricted to ISIS.

A Russian air force Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jet is prepared for take off at the Russian military base … [+] of Hmeimim, located south-east of the city of Latakia in Hmeimim, Latakia Governorate, Syria, on September 26, 2019. – With military backing from Russia, President Bashar al-Assad’s forces have retaken large parts of Syria from rebels and jihadists since 2015, and now control around 60 percent of the country. Russia often refers to troops it deployed in Syria as military advisers even though its forces and warplanes are also directly involved in battles against jihadists and other rebels (Photo by Maxime POPOV / AFP) (Photo by MAXIME POPOV/AFP via Getty Images)

AFP via Getty Images

In Assad’s days, Russia, along with Iran, would agitate against the American presence in north and east Syria, where U.S. troops worked alongside Kurdish-led forces against ISIS. Moscow would invariably point out that Russia and Iran were invited to Syria by Assad while the U.S., and Turkey, was not.

Now, the tables have turned. Iran and its proxy militia are persona non grata, and Turkey appears poised to become the main military backer and arms supplier of Damascus. While Russia may not want Turkey replacing its former role, it could still use the emergent situation to its advantage.

Turkey is presently promoting a regional coalition to combat ISIS consisting of the new Syrian government and Jordan. Ankara proposes this coalition can secure detention centers and prisons full of ISIS militants and their families in north and east Syria presently controlled by America’s Kurdish-led allies, which Turkey views as terrorists, and facilitate a complete U.S. withdrawal.

Even though it will not likely receive an invitation to join any such coalition, Russia might still support Turkey’s proposal and champion any subsequent American withdrawal ordered by the Trump administration as another strategic victory. After all, if the U.S. ultimately leaves Syria first, that could make any eventual Russian withdrawal significantly less humiliating for Moscow. Remember, President Vladimir Putin framed Assad’s fall as a victory, claiming his country achieved the declared goals of its Syria intervention, namely preventing “a terrorist enclave from being created there.”

Whatever policy Russia adopts in this new Syria, there are already indications it has some future there, even if a diminished one far removed from the heyday of its alliance with the Assad family dictatorship. The new Syrian leadership probably already concluded that it’s beneficial to have a continued Russian military presence, even if it ultimately opts to allow Turkey replace Russia’s role as its primary patron hitherto. After all, a continued Russian military could help prevent Syria from becoming a wholly powerless vassal state of Turkey.

“It’s important to realize that Syria’s new rulers aren’t all that afraid of Russia anymore. As long as Assad was there, Russia could bomb in support of his forces – it was extremely dangerous for them,” Aron Lund, a fellow with Century International and a Middle East analyst at the Swedish Defense Research Agency, told me. “But now there’s no Assad regime to support anymore.”

Furthermore, Syria could demand regular base extensions from Russia, a far cry from that 49-year lease Assad bestowed, and extract other significant concessions. Damascus may expect continued Russian support at the UN Security Council, where it has veto power that it previously used to shield Assad from censure during critical points in the civil war.

Lund also noted the Russian forces in Syria could even help protect the new authorities against future foreign threats.

“Having a Russian presence in the country is not a bad thing if you’re worried about being bombed by the United States or Israel,” he said.