Why the US insistence on Ukraine signing minerals deal? If Trump is adamant on peace deal, what military aid needs to be paid for. And if it’s for reconstruction aid surely Ukraine can sell their own minerals to pay for it. Seems like it’s a play to weaken China’s stranglehold on REMs.

16 comments

1. I think it is more a convenient way to create an out for Trump: Offering a deal Ukraine cannot possibly accept, blame them for not accepting the deal and then later when negotiations break down blame that on UKraine not accepting the deal.

2. Most of the ‘aid’ from the EU is in the form of loans which must be repaid.

   U.S. aid has, to date, had no repayment requirement. It’s perfectly reasonable to want something back – just like the EU gets.

   https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2024/10/09/immobilised-assets-council-agrees-on-up-to-35-billion-in-macro-financial-assistance-to-ukraine-and-new-loan-mechanism-implementing-g7-commitment/

3. Shameless greed not enough of an explanation?

4. Its a security guarantee in a way. Never underestimate American greed. Russia attacking Ukraine again would mean messing with American money (ore deposits)

   If NATO is off the table, this is probably one of the best security guarantees Ukraine can get.

5. Another point is that the US doesn’t want these resources to extract them or to invest in Ukraine. They just want to control them and prevent others from extracting those, which could also benefit Ukraine.

6. The major issue for Rare Earths is not their extraction from the ground. In that sense, rare earths are not that rare. Lots of deposits to be found around the world (not least the US). There is no shortage of ore.

   The main issue is refining capacity and that is where China is pretty dominant (80%+). Even the latest refining technologies (of which China has the most) is pretty dirty (lots of waste products), energy intensive, capital intensive and uses a lot of water.

   Even if Ukraine could be set up with refining capacity, that would undoubtedly take time and lots of capital (which it does not have) The problem even with this done is that the demand for rare earths metals is ALSO from China who have the industries that need rare earths.

   It is difficult to predict what Trump is up to. Any deal would seem symbolic as it would take years and decades to build up the industry in Ukraine assuming that there is a reasonably stable ceasefire. And this buildup would require someone (US private capital?) to bring in billions of dollars of capital beforehand – not exactly a bad deal for Ukraine in a sense. (Honestly, it would mean nothing to Trump as an individual since he would very likely be dead before these things delivered any returns on investment)

   My speculation is that the deal is bit of a loyalty test to Zelensky. While he has demonstrated courage and resilience and tenacity, he’s also been somewhat critical (spats with Biden?) of the US while at the same time taking a lot of US assistance. Trump’s attitude has kind of been “don’t take the US for granted” but Trump has also been kind of feckless so it remains to be seen.

7. It’s nothing to do with China. America wants REMs to fund its AI Industrial Revolution with as much domestic supply as possible.

8. I work in exploration and mining, the entire thing makes zero sense to me.

   Like is the US going to set up a state run company to explore and extract?

9. The best move is to restore Ukrainian territory and help develop the country so it can bring its considerable agricultural, mineral, defense, and energy sector resources over to the West.

   However, the Trump Administration plays by a different set of rules and it’s aims are clearly shortsighted and selfish in the extreme.

   It feels like amateur hour tbh – As though they’re only in it for themselves (?) or just looking to make a quick buck with no regards as to their policies damaging effect on the international rule of law let alone the long term prosperity of the United States and its Allies.

10. Typical businessman mindset. He was just focusing on balancing the >100 billion dollars spent in Ukraine with no apparent return, and also pricing in the future cost of protecting Ukraine against Russia. What else can worth that much the US can get from Ukraine. Zelensky is expecting unconditional aids based on moral values, but Trump is looking at everything through the lens of business transactions.

    Strategically I think sourcing REMs from a place so close to Russia is risky. How about focus on mining and building refineries in North or South America?

11. This deal is entirely baffling. Even if Ukraine does agree since most of their REM are in Russian occupied area and/or conflict zone, there is no way to exploit them unless US is willing to send troops to protect them.

12. It’s no different than when Trump tried to shake him down 5 years ago. Trump doesn’t care about peace for Ukraine, he cares about what it can do for the US.

13. I think Trump wants the minerals to repay the support the US has provided.

14. I think it comes from Trump’s self-image as a “deal-maker” who thinks that defending democracy is “for suckers” and that the US is being “ripped-off” by other countries. He is just primarily a transactional thinker that cannot understand the strategic implications of having a European alliance without some type of financial payment.

15. IMO it’s a play to weaken China dominance on REM. In this era of artificial intelligence and electric vehicles, rare earth minerals has become critical and the US is totally dependent on China.

    In 2022, the US government said that China controlled almost 60% of the mined production, over 85% of the processing capacity, and over 90% of the permanent magnet production. That same year, they named 50 minerals as super important for the US economy and national security. At the moment, the US gets most of its rare earth compounds and metals from other countries, with over 70% of those imports coming from China. Although they increased their mining and production capacity, they still have a long way to go.
    So far the place outside of the US, they has been able to secure access to REM has been in Canada with a joint venture between the DoD and the Canadian government.

    Now, I genuinely believe this offer to acquire a controlling stake in 50% of Ukrainian rare earth minerals is serious, and they seek complete control over it. This move aligns with the America First policy Trump pledged during his campaign. His administration keeps repeating it every single day so it shouldn’t be surprising anymore.

16. I don’t get what why people have an issue with such a proposal. More specifically, I know of 2 reasons why people take issue with this. But neither are rational:

    1. It is Trump’s proposal. A lot of people will start claiming that the sky is red if he were to say that it is blue.

    2. Some people think that it is America’s duty to help others with no benefit in return.

    But in fact, such an arrangement would be the best possible security guarantee that Ukraine could ever have. The US will first and foremost defend their economic assets, by force if necessary.

Comments are closed.