Jon Henley
Europe correspondent
The three-way “traffic-light” coalition of Social Democrats (SPD), Free Democrats (FDP) and Greens ruling Germany since 2021 collapsed in November under the weight of its own ideological contradictions and the country’s economic and security challenges.
The outgoing Social Democrat chancellor, Olaf Scholz, fired his liberal finance minister, Christian Lindner, over a bitter months-long budget dispute, then called a confidence vote in parliament deliberately in order to lose it – which he duly did.
Whoever becomes chancellor will have to tackle an economy beset by high energy and labour costs, stifling bureaucracy, crumbling infrastructure and an economy that has shrunk for two consecutive years for the first time in decades.
The slowdown with trade partner China has dealt a blow to German exports, a traditional strength, while the key car industry has been slow to develop attractive electric vehicles (EVs) and now faces the threat of US tariffs under Donald Trump.
Optimists say the vote could give Germany a vital shot at investment, modernisation and renewal. Pessimists say the problems are so structural and expectations so high that the middle-of-the-road coalition that will probably emerge is doomed to disappoint.
German chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic party (SPD) looks up from the stage at a citizens’ dialogue in Brandenburg, one day ahead of the national election. Photograph: Carsten Koall/APShare
14-day rolling average %
CDU/CSU SPD Grüne FDP AfD Linke
Source: Guardian moving average of recent poll data from\n wahlrecht.de,\n last updated
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Earlier this weekend, I also spoke with Dr Raphael Bossong of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs for this blog to get his take on the election and ask him to guide us through the vote.
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You will hear from him more throughout the day, but I started by asking him why Europe should take note of the vote.
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Well, it’s a decisive election. I mean, they always say that, but definitely this one is really important for Germany and for Europe at the same time.
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The tasks for the next government are bigger than ever.
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Watch what he had to say:
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EST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1740322800000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”10.00 EST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1740322801000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”10.00 EST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”10.00″,”title”:”What’s at stake in this election? – expert says”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Jakub Krupa”,”imageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2025/01/22/Jakub_Krupa.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=41cc9981ec7b067e2d3b5391c5a68a4f”,”largeImageUrl”:”https://www.europesays.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/1740325349_267_Jakub_Krupa.png”}],”primaryDateLine”:”Sun 23 Feb 2025 10.41 EST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Sun 23 Feb 2025 06.39 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vote casts her vote at a polling station in Berlin.”,”caption”:”A vote casts her vote at a polling station in Berlin.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Philipp-Moritz Jenne/AP”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Voter turnout at the ballot box by 2pm was at 52%, up from 36.5% at the same time in 2021 (+15.5pp, but take note that the 2021 election took place during the Covid-19 pandemic, so some voters opted for postal vote instead), German federal electoral authorities have just confirmed.
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Looking at the state-by-state breakdown from earlier in the day, reported by Welt, it seems like there was a particularly high turnout in the state of Thuringia (44.5% at midday, up from 24.6% in 2021), which is an AfD stronghold and where the far-right party won the state elections in September last year.
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Berlin also reported a higher turnout at noon with 33%, up from 25.4% in 2021.
“,”elementId”:”42662074-0241-4580-b1bb-d8f790a92dde”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”text”:”Scholz urges German parties to exclude far right as AfD poised for state election victory”,”elementId”:”c3e48c25-7882-4915-95ce-8cd7746f01c6″,”role”:”thumbnail”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/sep/01/german-far-right-party-afd-state-election-victory-thuringia”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1740321787000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”09.43 EST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1740322973000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”10.02 EST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1740322435000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”09.53 EST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”09.53″,”title”:”High turnout reported by 2pm”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Sun 23 Feb 2025 10.41 EST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Sun 23 Feb 2025 06.39 EST”},{“id”:”67bb2e6d8f0835381101aa9c”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Opinion is divided as Germany faces what some describe as the “most important election in their lifetime”. The country is expected to shift to the right as Friedrich Merz is in pole position to become Germany’s next chancellor, while far-right party AfD could become the second most powerful party.
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So earlier today I asked voters at a polling station in central Berlin what they expected from the election and what they wanted the next chancellor to focus on.
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Europe correspondent
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14-day rolling average %
CDU/CSU SPD Grüne FDP AfD Linke
Source: Guardian moving average of recent poll data from\n wahlrecht.de,\n last updated
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There seems little doubt that, barring any major surprises, the conservative Merz will be Germany’s next chancellor. The CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), have been consistently and comfortably ahead in the polls on about 30%, with the Alternative für Deutschland second on 20-21%.
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There is no apparent route to power for the far-right AfD since all other parties have ruled out working with a party they consider undemocratic.
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According to the Guardian’s poll tracker, the SPD are third on about 15% and the Greens fourth on 13%. The leftwing Die Linke are predicted to clear the 5% hurdle and expected to secure around 7-8% but it looks far from certain that the “conservative-left” Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) or liberal FDP will do the same.
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Depending on whether that trio (plus the local associations of Free Voters (FW), who could do well in Bavaria) score 5% or more, or qualify via the three-seat exception, the next assembly could have four parties or eight, the most in modern history.
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That makes the distribution of seats in the new parliament very hard to predict. However, most analysts see the most likely outcome being a CDU-led coalition government including either Scholz’s Social Democrats or the Greens, or maybe both.
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Europe correspondent
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The Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CDU/CSU) frontrunners, led by wealthy former asset manager Friedrich Merz, are proposing to cut taxes, tighten welfare eligibility, slash immigration, process asylum claims abroad, and boost aid to Ukraine.
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The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has endorsed the concept of “re-migration”, threatening the mass deportation of migrants. It also pledges a return to the deutschmark, military conscription, and sweeping education reforms.
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Scholz’s Social Democratic party (SPD) aims to support low-income families by cutting VAT on food and tax for low earners and raising the minimum wage. It also aims to curb immigration and proposes a €100bn infrastructure investment fund, but is more cautious on Ukraine. Scholz has refused to send long-range Taurus missiles to Kyiv, defending the decision as a “prudent” anti-escalation measure.
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The Greens have announced plans for a “billionaire tax” to help poorer households through the green transition. They are also in favour of increasing the minimum wage and are pushing for incentives to speed up the switch to renewable energy.
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posters, showing German chancellor Olaf Scholz, right, and CDU top candidate Friedrich Merz, stand on a meadow in Nieder-Erlenbach near Frankfurt.”,”caption”:”Election posters, showing German chancellor Olaf Scholz, right, and CDU top candidate Friedrich Merz, stand on a meadow in Nieder-Erlenbach near Frankfurt.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Michael Probst/AP”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1740310774000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”06.39 EST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1740314884000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”07.48 EST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1740314884000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”07.48 EST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”07.48″,”title”:”Who are the key players and what have they promised?”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Jon Henley”,”imageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2016/09/22/Jon-Henley.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=49db88bf6fc8b042c62d52be8afd87ae”,”largeImageUrl”:”https://www.europesays.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Jon_Henley,_L.png”}],”primaryDateLine”:”Sun 23 Feb 2025 10.41 EST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Sun 23 Feb 2025 06.39 EST”},{“id”:”67babb568f08089227381baf”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Europe correspondent
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The three-way “traffic-light” coalition of Social Democrats (SPD), Free Democrats (FDP) and Greens ruling Germany since 2021 collapsed in November under the weight of its own ideological contradictions and the country’s economic and security challenges.
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The outgoing Social Democrat chancellor, Olaf Scholz, fired his liberal finance minister, Christian Lindner, over a bitter months-long budget dispute, then called a confidence vote in parliament deliberately in order to lose it – which he duly did.
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Whoever becomes chancellor will have to tackle an economy beset by high energy and labour costs, stifling bureaucracy, crumbling infrastructure and an economy that has shrunk for two consecutive years for the first time in decades.
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The slowdown with trade partner China has dealt a blow to German exports, a traditional strength, while the key car industry has been slow to develop attractive electric vehicles (EVs) and now faces the threat of US tariffs under Donald Trump.
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Optimists say the vote could give Germany a vital shot at investment, modernisation and renewal. Pessimists say the problems are so structural and expectations so high that the middle-of-the-road coalition that will probably emerge is doomed to disappoint.
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chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic party (SPD) looks up from the stage at a citizens’ dialogue in Brandenburg, one day ahead of the national election.”,”caption”:”German chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic party (SPD) looks up from the stage at a citizens’ dialogue in Brandenburg, one day ahead of the national election.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Carsten Koall/AP”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:true,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1740310774000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”06.39 EST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1740312506000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”07.08 EST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1740312506000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”07.08 EST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”07.08″,”title”:”Why does the German election matter?”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Jon Henley”,”imageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2016/09/22/Jon-Henley.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=49db88bf6fc8b042c62d52be8afd87ae”,”largeImageUrl”:”https://www.europesays.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Jon_Henley,_L.png”}],”primaryDateLine”:”Sun 23 Feb 2025 10.41 EST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Sun 23 Feb 2025 06.39 EST”},{“id”:”67bab6bf8f086d399220521d”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Guten Tag, and good day from Berlin.
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Sixty million Germans choose their next government today, which will lead Europe’s largest economy through what will most likely be the most tumultuous era in decades.
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Voters have to choose who will be given the task of steering Germany through an existential security crisis in Europe with Ukraine and Russia, while at the same time facing unprecedented structural challenges to the country’s economic model amid a worsening geopolitical outlook abroad, most obviously characterised by a crumbling transatlantic alliance with the new US administration of Donald Trump.
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man makes soap bubbles in front of the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin.”,”caption”:”A man makes soap bubbles in front of the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Michael Probst/AP”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
The conservative opposition chief Friedrich Merz is widely expected to score a win and get the job. But other than that, there are more questions than answers. Who will he govern with? How many parties will get into the Bundestag? Will the far-right once again see record rises in their support, and if so, what will this mean for German politics?
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The polling stations have been open since 8am local time (7am GMT) and will close at 6pm local time (5pm GMT) when we should get an exit poll and a first indication of what awaits Germany next.
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We will bring you all the key updates throughout the day, helping you to understand the context of the vote, summarising the main themes of the campaign, and bringing first-hand reports from on the ground in Berlin.
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Key events
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Which Merz would turn up as chancellor? – expert says
Jakub Krupa
So let’s go back to Dr Raphael Bossong of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs for a second.
I asked him what we should expect from Merz as a potential chancellor, and which side of him is likely to dominate: the one declaring strong support for the EU, or the one pushing for radical overhaul of migration policy, even at risk of falling foul of the bloc’s rules?
He has made various statements … that he wants to take a new leadership role in Europe [for Germany].
But that depends on many factors.
Here is his analysis:
‘We don’t know what Merz we will see’: a political analyst on the German election – video
Kate Connolly
Berlin correspondent
Leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Friedrich Merz gestures during his speech as the screen behind reads “Political change for Germany” at the final campaign event of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union party on the eve of general elections in Munich. Photograph: Alexandra Beier/AFP/Getty Images
WHO IS THE LIKELY NEXT GERMAN CHANCELLOR?
If polls are to be believed, CDU leader Friedrich Merz is most likely to be the next chancellor of Germany.
Once sidelined by Merkel, Merz loves private planes, hates tax bureaucracy, and backs Ukraine.
He was arguably best known for his suggestion in the early 2000s that German tax rules be drastically reduced so that they fit on the back of a beer coaster. The very same coaster on which he scribbled the policy is now preserved in the archives of Germany’s House of History in Bonn.
But there is much more to him.
For example, in a spectacular gambit earlier this year, Merz attempted to wrest back control of the highly charged migration debate by passing a non-binding resolution on border security in parliament with votes from the far right – violating an unwritten rule of the post-Nazi period and prompting mass protests.
So, who is Friedrich Merz?
ShareWhat is the voting system?
Jon Henley
Europe correspondent
A resident casts a vote at a polling station in Berlin. Photograph: Markus Schreiber/AP
Germany has a hybrid election system in which voters cast one ballot for a candidate representing a constituency, and a second for a particular party’s list of candidates in a federal state. Only parties that win 5% of the second vote can enter parliament.
Since the 2021 election produced a bloated Bundestag of 735 seats, one of the largest parliaments in the world, a 2023 law – revised last year after a ruling by the country’s top court – has come into effect limiting the size of the new assembly to 630 seats.
The new system also aims to prioritise proportional representation, so seats will be allocated based on second votes received nationwide. If a party wins proportionally more constituency seats than its share of the national vote, some will be left vacant.
The court rejected a proposed change that it said would have disadvantaged smaller parties, so those that win at least three constituency seats will still be entitled to parliamentary seats according to their national vote even if it falls below 5%.
The combination of the 5% threshold, the three-seat exception, and an unusually fragmented and competitive party landscape, with many smaller parties jostling for position, means the exact makeup of the new Bundestag is particularly uncertain.