BERLIN – Germany’s centre-right recorded a clear victory in Sunday’s national elections, according to early projections, heralding a substantial political shift in Europe’s largest country and clearing the way for Friedrich Merz, leader of the opposition Christian Democrats, to become Germany’s next chancellor, replacing Olaf Scholz of the Social Democrats. 

Early projections put Merz‘s centre-right bloc, which also includes the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU), at 29%, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) at 20 % and the Social Democrats (SPD) at 16%. The Greens won about 13%, the Left 9% and the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) 5%, according to the projections. 

Barring a substantial shift in the results, the process of crafting a coalition promises to be fraught, with the early returns suggesting Merz will need at least two partners to build a majority in parliament, most likely with the SPD and either the Greens or the FDP. 

If confirmed, the results would be worst in the SPD’s more than 100-year history, while also marking the first time since World War Two that the Christians Democrats and SPD did not take the first two places in a national election. 

The preliminary result signaled a substantial shift to the right in Germany’s electorate since 2021, with the centre-right bloc and AfD recording a collective 48.5%, a massive jump from 34.5%. Given that Merz has ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD, however, the prospect of a coalition between the two is slim. 

It was unclear whether the FDP and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a leftist party, would make it past the electoral threshold of 5%, which is required to gain parliamentary representation. 

The projected centre-right win marks dramatic personal victory for Merz, who had all but abandoned his aspirations of becoming chancellor more than 20 years ago after his then-rival, Angela Merkel, outmanoeuvered him for the party leadership. 

Much to Merkel’s chagrin, Merz returned to the head of the party in 2022 after two unsuccessful bids for the party leadership in 2018 and 2021. 

The Christian Democrats will honour their responsibility for forming a government after winning the German election, said Friedrich Merz, the projected winner of the election, as he took the stage at his party’s headquarters.

“It’s now about creating a government that is capable of acting as soon as possible with a solid parliamentary majority,” Merz said.

“The world out there isn’t waiting for Germany, and it isn’t waiting for long-winding coalition talks in negotiations,” he added.

Merz also thanked his supporters, who had turned out in record numbers to the headquarters, as he noted.

“Now is the time for rambo zambo at the Adenauer house.”

“Tonight we’ll celebrate, and from tomorrow we’ll get to work.”

The formation of a Grand Coalition would likely mark the end of Scholz’s political career, after he led the party to its worst national election result since 1887. Scholz has led an unpopular three-party coalition since 2021. It broke down in November after months of infighting, prompting snap elections. 

“This is a bitter result for the Social Democratic party, it is also a defeat – it needs to be said loud and clear,” said Scholz after the projections were announced.

Supporters were dead silent in the party’s headquarters when the SPD result was announced – though their projection would put them above the 13.9% they acheived at the 2024 European elections.

Early coalition lines drawn
Merz said during the election night Elefantenrunde broadcast that he hoped to form a new government by Easter, and that he wants to talk “properly” to the Social Democrats after a tough exchange of blows on the campaign trail.

On multiple occasions, he ruled out entering into a coalition with AfD.

“The world is not waiting for us. Europe is waiting for us, for Germany, to take on a stronger leadership role again,” he said.

Merz added that Europe should prioritise agreeing on a united position on the US’s negotiations with Russia on Ukraine.

The CDU’s leader in the European Parliament, Daniel Caspary, hailed the victory as a win for Europe.

“The largest European country, in the heart of Europe, is now back on track,” Caspary told Euractiv.

Scholz, meanwhile, signalled that he would retire from politics when the next government is formed, and that he will not be available to take up a ministerial role if his SPD form part of the coalition.

Christian Lindner, the former finance minister whose departure from government triggered the collapse of Scholz’s ‘traffic-light’ coalition government, said he would leave politics if his FDP failed to hit the 5% threshold needed to sit in parliament.

Asked if his Greens would approach the CDU over a possible coalition, Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck suggested it was Merz’s perogative to initiate those discussions.

[MK]