As NATO fades, and Germany takes the lead in European defence, where does this leave Irish neutrality? – Slugger O’Toole

Friedrich Merz looks like he will be the next German Chancellor. Where his predecessors were ambivalent about European defence, Mr. Merz has been far more clear.

In fact, he has said it is his number one priority as an incoming Chancellor. In language that would have seemed unbelievable even a few months ago, he has said he even doubts if NATO may survive even as long as the next NATO summit in June, and that it is time for a common European defence architecture independent of America and NATO.

If he can break a long-standing taboo in German politics and enable debt increases to fund German military buildup, then these words may soon become actions.

Mr Merz has said –

“The absolute priority from my point of view is that Europeans come to an understanding and stand united. At the moment, a large part of European politics is taking place without Germany. Of course, this is also related to the election campaign and the current transitional phase. However, I am in close contact with many prime ministers as well as heads of state and government of the European Union. For me, the absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that we can gradually achieve true independence from the United States.

I would not have believed that I would ever have to say something like this on a television program, but after Donald Trump’s statements last week, it is clear that the Americans—at least this part of the American government—are largely indifferent to Europe’s fate. I am very curious to see how we approach the NATO summit at the end of June—whether we will still be able to speak of NATO in its current form or whether we will have to establish an independent European defense capability much sooner.

This is my absolute priority, and I have no illusions about what is happening in America. Just look at the recent days and how Elon Musk has intervened in the German election campaign—an unprecedented event. The interventions from Washington have been no less dramatic, drastic, and ultimately outrageous than those we have seen from Moscow. We are under massive pressure from both sides, which is why my absolute priority now is to establish unity in Europe.”

Does this present Ireland with some stark choices?

It would seem the possibility of Ireland joining NATO, which never seemed that likely in the first place, has now receded even further away, as NATO itself fades in importance thanks to the radical changes in America.

Ireland is less truly neutral than some other neutral European countries like Switzerland. It has been more explicit in offering military support to Ukraine. As recently as yesterday committing to sending them Ireland’s aging Giraffe Mark IV radar systems for air defense. Now that the possibility of Russia threatening the Baltic states, Poland or the Balkans is becoming all too real, Ireland faces more choices.

The Irish population will overwhelmingly side against Russia on these issues, but Ireland’s neutrality is challenged in more fundamental ways. Increasingly Russia is Ireland’s military adversary too.

Russia uses its Dublin embassy as a European spy base. It interferes with the transatlantic cabling in Irish maritime waters, that the European internet depends on, and has directly challenged Irish shipping.

Ireland’s lack of commitment to the common defence of Europe has tested the patience of Ireland’s EU partners. It seems the times have radically changed, and avoidance of these questions is a strategy that may no longer work.