Comments from Donald Trump last night suggested the war could end “within weeks” – a claim echoed by French President Emmanuel Macron.
However, analysts at a leading think tank have concluded such assertions are likely to be significantly premature.
A campaign assessment from the Institute for the Study of War said Vladimir Putin currently remained committed to continuing his war, and had “shown no indication that he is rethinking his determination to compel Ukraine to surrender”.
He does not appear deterred by the idea of protracting the war further despite suffering significant and likely unsustainable personnel and material losses, the analysis states, adding Putin has “articulated a theory of victory that assumes Russia can outlast Ukraine and the West and continue to advance on the battlefield”.
The report also says Kremlin officials have formally rejected the possibility of a ceasefire on any terms other than the complete capitulation of Ukraine and the West, which the ISW says underscores “Russia’s unwillingness to make compromises during future peace negotiations”.
That follows comments by Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, who claimed that Russia will only stop military activity in Ukraine when peace negotiations bring about a “solid, stable result that suits Russia”.
Russian state media summarised Lavrov’s statements as “[Russia] will only end combat operations” when negotiations end in a way that satisfies Russia.
The ISW report also notes that Russian officials continue to frame Russia’s demand for Ukrainian forces to withdraw from territory that they control in the east and south of Ukraine as a “compromise”.