Feb 27, 2025 07:03 IST

First published on: Feb 27, 2025 at 07:03 IST

Scientists from more than 190 countries are meeting in Hangzhou, China, this week as a part of the process of drafting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Seventh Assessment Report. Absent from the conference are experts from the US, including NASA chief scientist Katherine Calvin, who was slated to chair one of the main sessions. The delegates’ participation was reportedly vetoed by the Trump administration. The Seventh Assessment Report is due only in 2029. However, the UN body that evaluates the science behind climate change often staggers the release of its findings. There was hope, therefore, that some of its findings would be published before 2028 when the UNFCCC conducts its next Global Climate Stocktake — the assessment of the collective progress made towards achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement. The US withdrawal could jeopardise the chances of the IPCC’s inputs informing the stock take.

The US has not yet clarified whether it is withdrawing from the IPCC. However, by pulling out experts from the Hangzhou meet, the Trump administration made apparent its hostility to the UN body. Trump has also ordered federal scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the US Global Change Programme to stop work on IPCC projects. There are fears that these moves could be a precursor to cutting off US funds to the agency. The apprehensions are not unfounded given that the IPCC was starved of American financial support during Trump’s first stint at the White House. The Joe Biden administration, in contrast, provided close to a quarter of the agency’s funding. Fetters have now been put on the technical team assembled by the former US president to assist American experts on the IPCC panel. The agency does work with scientists who are not nominated by their governments. During Trump’s last term, for instance, US scientists continued to contribute to the IPCC’s work even though the US kept a low-profile presence at IPCC meetings. However, the quality of the UN body’s work could take a hit without inputs from agencies such as NASA and NOAA and experts like Calvin, who was to co-chair its working group on global warming mitigation. NASA has already terminated its contract with a US-based group of scientists who were working with Calvin to coordinate global efforts to craft the Seventh Assessment.

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That said, the first Trump administration’s disengagement with the IPCC did not derail the agency. A large part of the work on the Sixth Assessment Report was conducted during that challenging period, enabled to a great extent by support from countries and institutions outside the US. The Hangzhou meeting could be a precursor for putting in place procedures to fill the void created by the US’s absence.