If the United States were to withdraw from its nuclear commitment to Europe, France would likely take over responsibility for deterrence on the continent.
The public statements of the new Trump administration have led to growing speculation the United States will play a much smaller role in helping deter aggression in Europe in the near future. As a result, various European leaders are now exploring options on what could happen if the United States military is pulled off the continent. One option reportedly being floated by French President Emmanuel Macron could see the nuclear-capable Dassault Rafale omnirole fighter taking over a nuclear deterrence role while based in Germany.
According to a report from the UK’s Telegraph newspaper, French officials have suggested “that deploying fighter jets would send a message to Vladimir Putin, while diplomats in Berlin suggested it would pressure Sir Keir Starmer to do the same.” The source was quoted as telling the paper of record, “Posting a few French nuclear jet fighters in Germany should not be difficult and would send a strong message.”
America’s Nuclear Bombs Might Be Going Away
Currently, the United States—as part of its agreement with NATO—has deployed the B61 nuclear gravity bomb at bases in Belgium’s Kleine Brogel Air Base, Germany’s Büchel Air Base, Italy’s Aviano & Ghedi Torre Air Base, the Netherlands’ Volkel Air Base, and Turkey’s Incirlik Air Base. There are estimated to be around 150 of the bombs in Europe.
“During the Cold War, NATO nuclear sharing was established to ensure a quick response to potential nuclear threats from countries like the former Soviet Union,” Aerotime reported, noting that all of the aforementioned nations with the exception of Turkey either currently operate or will operate in the coming years the Lockheed Martin F-35A Lightning II, which is certified to carry the B61.
The Trump administration has not announced any plans for the future of America’s nuclear arsenal in Europe. But if U.S. troops were to withdraw from the continent, it stands to reason that they would take the bombs with them.
France is NATO’s Nuclear Powerhouse
There are no American nuclear bombs stationed in France, but the NATO member is in the exclusive club of nations that possess the potential doomsday weapons. Thus if the U.S. were to back out of its security commitments to Europe, France might step in.
It wouldn’t be the first time, either.
“During the 1960s, France had F-100D/F Super Sabre jet fighters stationed at two bases in West Germany, armed with U.S.-supplied tactical nuclear bombs,” The War Zone reported.
This time around, it would likely be the French-made Dassault Rafale that would fill the nuclear deterrence role stationed in Germany. The jets are already employed by the French Air and Space Force to carry the country’s nuclear assets, notably the ASMP-A (Air-Sol Moyenne Portée-Amélioré), an air-launched cruise missile developed in France to deliver nuclear payloads. Around 50 of the omnirole Rafale B twin-seat models are based at Saint Dizier-Robinson Air Base, ready to carry out the country’s nuclear mission.
Paris is also believed to maintain an arsenal of around 300 nuclear weapons as part of its “force de dissuasion” program, the Telegraph added. This includes sea and air-based launch variants.
The Cornerstone of the French Air and Space Force
The Rafale—which means literally “gust of wind,” or “burst of fire” in a more military sense—has been a cornerstone of French military aviation since 2001. It was conceived for use by the French Air Force and Navy as an “omnirole” fighter, meaning that it would replace seven types of combat aircraft in operation at the time of its development.
It traces its origins back to the Avion de Combat Experimental (ACX) program in the early 1980s before France’s withdrawal from the multinational European Fighter Aircraft (EFA) project in 1985.
The ACX originally took the form of a technology demonstrator. It was first flown in July 1986 and was later redesignated as Rafale A. It established the primary design features for the Rafale, including the aircraft’s basic aerodynamic configuration, a fly-by-wire control system, and a structure that made extensive use of composites.
The Rafale was then developed to carry out a wide range of missions, including air-defense/air-superiority, anti-access/area denial, reconnaissance, close air support, dynamic targeting, air-to-ground precision strike/interdiction, anti-ship attacks, nuclear deterrence, and even buddy-buddy refueling.
There are now more than 230 in service with the French military, and according to a report from Maya Carlin for The National Interest, Paris may be ready to increase the number by nearly three dozen, following calls from U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio for France to increase its defense spending.
“French officials claim to be on course to double its NATO allocations by 2030. Recently, France’s defense minister has called for Europe to bolster its rearmament further,” Carlin wrote. She added, “As part of this initiative, Paris plans to procure up to 30 Rafale fighter jets, three more frigates, and additional UAV and electronic warfare platforms. In 2024, France ordered 42 Rafale jets in a whopping $5 billion deal. The platform’s tried and trustiest performance, powerful payload capacity and cutting-edge electronic systems make it a formidable force in the skies.”
The Rafale could soon be the NATO nuclear deterrent aircraft as well.
About the Author: Peter Suciu
Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: [email protected].
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