KYIV – Donald Trump’s reluctance to grant any security commitments to Ukraine as a part of a deal to gain access to its mineral wealth has prompted Kyiv to contemplate pushing European countries to provide a ‘net of guarantees’, several Ukrainian officials told Euractiv.

Kyiv’s main goal would be a European presence in Ukraine – a peacekeeping force backed by the US – to provide deterrence against Russia.

Though Washington has said it would not commit to specific security guarantees, Ukrainian officials expect the US to support Kyiv’s efforts to seek support elsewhere, including from Europe.

On the side of so-called ‘soft guarantees’, Kyiv hopes that foreign companies wanting to invest in the country – especially Americans and those from heavyweight European countries – would lobby their governments to protect them from Russian attacks.

With much of the country’s mineral wealth located in areas under Russian occupation, they could also serve as a bargaining chip with Western countries interested in mining those resources.

EU fast track
A roadmap with an accelerated timeline for Ukraine’s EU accession could serve as another soft assurance for Kyiv.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen earlier this week said Ukraine could become a member even earlier than a previously floated target date of 2030 if the country continues speedy reforms.

“A change of procedure could open the way for a change to reduce the vetoes in the accession process and allow proceeding faster on merit, rather than waiting for vetoing countries like Hungary,” an EU official told Euractiv.

Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos, who has repeatedly spoken out in favour of bringing Ukraine in as soon as possible, has previously floated the idea of moving towards qualified majority voting for a large part of the accession process.

‘Hard guarantees’
As part of so-called ‘hard guarantees’, Kyiv wants to focus on ramping up its own armed forces, future NATO membership and European peacekeepers.

Ukraine repeatedly said it would not accept limits or a “significant reduction in Ukraine’s army” in the future, restrictions on the acquisition and development of weapons, or abstaining from defence industry cooperation with Western countries.

Ukraine’s request for a European peacekeeping force will be the hardest to negotiate as most questions about size and rules of engagement remain unanswered.

Ukrainian officials say European peacekeepers could, instead of directly monitoring the frontline, be stationed in key parts of the country protecting sea ports or critical infrastructure.

A Ukrainian DMZ?
While the discussion centres mostly on “boots on the ground,” Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha stressed that “securing Ukraine’s sky and sea is equally, if not more, important.”

“Land, sky, and sea must all be in focus,” he added. The idea resembles the calls for a ‘no fly’-zone from the early stages of Russia’s war.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told reporters in Kyiv earlier this week he hoped a UK-organised defence summit on Sunday and an extraordinary EU summit next week in Brussels could clarify what Europe could practically provide.

A comparison cited by Ukrainian military officials is the Demilitarised Zone (DMZ) that demarcates North Korea from South Korea. Whether European countries are prepared to commit the necessary resources to such an engagement – the US has had troops stationed in South Korea for more than 70 years – is another question.

[mk]