In a document sent to the European Commission, Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania outline details for the creation of a defence line on the border with Belarus and Russia, and put price tags on several continent-wide defence projects.

The document is intended to influence the drafting of the White paper on the future of the bloc’s defence, which is expected to identify major defence projects in which Europeans should invest for the benefit of all, and where to find the money.

The list of projects first reported by Euractiv, has been repeatedly confirmed by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in recent weeks.

The North-East Border Shield is under consideration, along with ammunition stockpiles, an air defence shield, or maritime domain awareness.

It would bring together Poland’s Eastern Shield, the Baltic states’ Baltic Defence Line, and could include Finland’s 1,340-kilometre-long border with Russia and countries to the south.

According to the calculations of Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, the investment needed for this project is around €8-10 billion for a long list of items.

For the frontline states, protecting the border with Russia and Belarus is key to defending the European Union.

It first became an obvious point of tension after Moscow and Minsk organised what the Europeans called “instrumentalised migration”, in an attempt to divide and destabilise the Europeans. Since Moscow attacked Ukraine three years ago, fortifying the border has only become a higher priority for the neighbouring countries.

“We need to take urgent actions to increase counter-mobility, enhance air surveillance and air defence, electronic defence, and underwater security of our borders,” the countries write in a document seen by Euractiv.

In their list, they propose that EU countries jointly invest in infrastructure with fortifications, high-tech border surveillance systems, electronic warfare capabilities, drones and counter-drone measures. It also includes warehouses to store equipment, fuel, ammunition and explosives, as well as logistics for transport and shelters.

They are also asking for more regulation.

Though they are calling for a “robust line of defence covering land, air, sea and other relevant domains” along the EU’s border with Russia and Belarus, the countries do not include sophisticated air and missile defence systems, fighter jets or navel assets in their shopping list, which would add significantly to the price tag.

For reference, a European air defence shield would amount to €500 billion, the European Commission estimates.

Later in the document, they estimate that protecting the necessary underwater infrastructure from cyber-attacks, sabotage and other threats would cost at least €2 billion at EU level.

With this pot of money, they recommend the creation of a “modular and multi-layered underwater defence dome, including surveillance, monitoring and potential counter-defence capabilities” and the establishment of an information exchange on threats and accidents.

Improving the military mobility of troops and equipment on the continent should also benefit from €10 billion, they said.

In total, the EU should provide €100 billion to boost the continent’s defence capabilities by 2028, on top of national investments, they added.

€50 billion for munition stockpiles
A total of €50 billion at EU level should be spent on stockpiling ammunition and missiles, in addition to national investments, the document says.

This could help companies to stockpile essential components such as propellants, explosives and shells, the four countries write, highlighting a move foreseen in the EU Defence Industry Programme (EDIP) currently under negotiation.

Ammunition and missiles have proved to be essential equipment in a war, alongside more advanced technologies.

European munition stockpiles for Ukraine are security guarantees, France added. “Stocks of weapons in Europe, perhaps also paid for by Europeans for Ukraine” also count as “security guarantees,” French Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu said on Thursday.

When it comes to production and procurement, EU-level programmes for joint procurement (EDIRPA) and production (ASAP) of ammunition and missiles could be extended to include “battle-decisive munitions alongside 155mm artillery ammunition, notably anti-tank, loitering, and air defence munitions,” they also write.

Widening the scope of the two initiatives to include more types of equipment could bring faster results, some diplomats have suggested, although their legal regimes would make it complicated, a Commission official said.

[DE]