Finland joined Nato as a full member less than two years ago, but a number of experts and leaders are wondering whether the Nordic country can rely on the defence alliance after Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
For example, Trump recently surprised Finnish and European leaders by falsely blaming Ukraine for starting the ongoing war. In reality, Russia started the conflict when it launched a full-scale invasion of the country three years ago — a move that sparked Finland’s application for Nato membership in the first place.
Late last year, the Finnish government unveiled the country’s first Defence Report since joining the alliance. Published just before Christmas, the report’s guidelines will carry into the 2030s — and it will steer Finland’s role in the alliance and more generally, guide the country’s defence policies.
Among other things, the report said Russia would “continue to pose a long-term security threat to Europe and Finland”, but it also noted that Finland’s membership of Nato reduced that threat.
Forsberg: Revision needed
Given recent turns of events, Finnish political scientist and professor Tuomas Forsberg thinks the report already needs revision.
According to him, Trump has changed the United States’ policy to such an extent that Finland cannot necessarily count on support from the US and Nato.
He told Yle’s Swedish-language news unit that the Finnish Parliament needs to react to the new situation and the defence report must be rewritten. He pointed to the report underscoring Nato’s deterrence capabilities. It states that the alliance should be capable of offering a large-scale military defence against a powerful nuclear state.
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Tuomas Forsberg is Professor of International Politics at the University of Tampere. Image: Mimmi Nietula / Yle
Forsberg contends that Nato’s deterrence capability has been weakened by the US and Trump, who appears to be leading the country according to his own preferences, while sidelining the rule of law as well as international conventions.
It is difficult to know what Trump really thinks about Nato, and this factor should be reflected in Finland’s Defence Report, according to Forsberg.
Opinions, shared and otherwise
Former defence minister Antti Kaikkonen (Cen) agreed with Forsberg’s assessment about the document.
“The report is partly outdated, especially when it comes to US foreign and security policy and its relationship with Russia,” Kaikkonen told Yle Svenska.
Foreign affairs committee member, MP Veronika Honkasalo (Left), shared similar sentiments.
“I completely agree with Forsberg, the entire context regarding the US should be analysed again,” Honkasalo said.
However, Prime Minister Petteri Orpo (NCP) had a different opinion about the matter, urging people to keep cool heads.
“I do not agree with interpretations suggesting the US is about to leave Nato and that the alliance’s deterrence and credibility would be weakened in such a way. We must take greater responsibility for Europe, and we will continue to do that,” Orpo said.
Similarly, Education Minister Anders Adlercreutz (SPP) said people should not draw hasty conclusions about the US’ and Trump’s policies. According to the minister, it should be assumed that nothing permanent has changed and that “existing structures remain in place”.
On Thursday, the chair of the defence committee, Jukka Kopra (NCP) told Yle TV’s morning show that he rejected Forsberg’s criticism about the report. He said the document was formulated carefully and that there is no need for a re-write.
Stubb: ‘An era of chaos’
Meanwhile President Alexander Stubb is headed to London on Sunday to attend a summit of leaders to discuss European security and the war in Ukraine.
Stubb, who became Finland’s president about 11 months ago, said that the past year has been laborious.
In a question and answer session with Svenska Yle on Thursday, Stubb said it hasn’t just been the past few weeks that things have changed.
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Image: Atte Henriksson/Yle
“More has happened in the past year than in the last 30 years, at least that’s how it feels,” he said.
“We live in an era of chaos. I understand the anxiety but my message is ‘don’t worry’,” he continued, adding that he feels more secure as president because of his increased access to information about Finland’s security situation.
He acknowledged a major policy shift has taken place in the US, saying that “it is perhaps a little less stable than it was before”.
But at the same time, Stubb noted the US is seeking economic transactions, offering Finland an opportunity. The president pointed to possible deals on icebreakers and technology exports, adding that deals were also possible in terms of defence.
Stubb said he’s not afraid of the United States leaving Nato.
However, US policy has shifted regarding global institutions like the United Nations, the World Trade Organization, International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the World Health Organization and the International Criminal Court, as well as the Paris Agreement on climate change.
“Here we see that the US no longer supports international institutions in the same way. The UN vote on Ukraine the other day was perhaps a prime example,” Stubb said, referring to the US siding with Russia to vote against a UN General Assembly motion censuring Russia for its aggression in Ukraine.
Svenska Yle asked Stubb whether it is time for the EU to establish a joint military force.
“I think this is a question that Prime Minister Petteri Orpo will certainly answer during the EU summit on 6 March,” Stubb replied.
“Of course, I have my own opinion and I think I know the direction in which we’re headed, but I’ll keep that opinion to myself,” Stubb said.
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