Can Ukraine survive without US aid? The reality of going it alone
https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/aid-ukraine-us-trump-zelensky-bbm899rln?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Reddit#Echobox=1740838027
Posted by TimesandSundayTimes
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***From The Times:***
The row in the Oval Office between President Zelensky and President Trump has brought the geopolitical nightmare scenarios conjured during last month’s Munich Security Conference closer to reality: an American withdrawal from Europe, a breakup of Nato, even a closer ideological affinity between Washington and Moscow than with its traditional allies. The question of whether Ukraine can continue to defend itself against Russia’s invasion without US support is now an immediate concern.
What will the US do?
Whether this was a deliberate ambush in the White House or Zelensky mishandling a thin-skinned president does not, in this specific context, matter. President Trump is not a person likely to allow this defiance to pass unpunished.
There are reports that he is contemplating a halt to military aid; recent shipments were initiated under his predecessor, Joe Biden. There is $3.85 billion allocated for weapons that can be transferred from existing US stockpiles and another $1.5 billion in Department of State military financing, currently frozen along with most of the rest of foreign aid as the new administration revisits old commitments. The president has announced no new support packages, and can choose not to use the remaining funding.
Battlefield and strategic tactics may change. Ukraine may choose to give up an entire theatre of war, and Russia may gain enormous ground.
But that doesn’t mean Kyiv is under threat again or that Russia has a realistic chance of toppling the Ukrainian state. Especially since the US Congress will have more elections in a year or two.
Also Trump may like this “great television” and may simply want this crisis to go on forever. So he may allow it to fester, which may mean just moaning a lot but secretly allowing the aid to keep flowing, if even at a trickle. For example Russia sanctions are on for another year at least. Trump could have simply cancelled them.
He’s not going it alone.
This is an Americentric piece. It’s Trump who’s given up on his allies because he admires dictators. It doesn’t mean the rest of the Western world will.
What would happen if a non-nuclear member of NATO sent troops into the Ukraine theatre under their country’s flag, not NATO’s?
I.e., the only reason NATO is not fighting is because it risks escalating a global nuclear confrontation. But what if that wasn’t a risk?
Of course Ukraine can survive without the US but it requires the rest of the west to step up.
Europe has not provided Ukraine with enough nor have they moved with enough agency. The US is gone on the matter, Bidens old red lines don’t matter. Give Ukraine what they want as soon as they want and replace it.
Can anyone explain to me why US is going to be the only country to take the rare minerals from Ukraine and Europe, instead, should spend more money on the army? Will countries in Europe just follow whatever Trump is going to order to them?
The USA is going it alone now, they got it backwards
No it cannot. and we will see that
We , as Europe, we have a chance to prove we can stand still and fight without Uncle Sam.
I mean, ok, Trump one day will be gone, but another one like him (or even worse) can be a president…we can’t live depending on the hopes a new good POTUS will come.
The EU should have counter-invaded Ukraine as soon as the russians retreated the first time, and deployed peacekeepers in the contested territories.
Yes it can. They did very well at the start of the war, when they had no help. They will do fine with European and other countries help.
I know the US administration rubles all this nonsense about Europeans not being ready and not doing enough bla bla bla. This is dust in the eyes of the average citizens. I live in Romania and probably our Polish neighbors can confirm – at any given time we are ready to increase and transform our manufacturing production into war production. Same for Germany and UK. It really doesn’t take too long to switch from manufacturing cars to manufacturing tanks.
Until these past weeks it wasn’t needed for us to do it because we were paying for American defense systems. If our money are not needed by the Trump administration we will buy from somewhere else and we will start producing our own systems. That’s what the average citizens seem not to understand.. we were not producing not because we didn’t want to but because another of our partners did it and we were fine with it 🤷♀️ obviously it is not the case anymore..
Only if Europe and the UK step up their aid (financial and military) dramatically.
However, it is likely Ukraine will adjust to more guerilla tactics if they find themselves in such a position.
At the same time we can’t discuss this without realizing the very real and dangerous consequences of the US pulling back support:
Encourage authoritarian states to act aggressively.
Signal weakness to China regarding Taiwan.
Shift the war burden to Europe, potentially forcing a NATO-Russia war.
Harm, or even utterly cripple the US economy and global stability.
Keep in mind the most popular political pundits claimed Ukraine would take back Crimea in 2024. I did speak up against it earning downvotes each time and get why pro Ukraine propaganda was needed for other people. But the whole plan was delusion. Singular Western opinions on what will happen in Ukraine have been consistently wrong. They talk to Ukrainians to get opinions, but they live in the West far away from any war. And barely keep up with the news there. Rather we need to focus on think tanks that are collecting much more info much faster.
Ukraine has also been getting help from the EU, and I’m hoping they will increase that assistance to make up for americas shameful attempt to profit from Russia’s invasion.
A lot of people simply do not understand that the majority of American people do not care enough to continue having US involvement in Ukraine. Whether people on Reddit want to admit it or not, but you still have a large population that have seen the effects of the Vietnam, Korean, and finally the Iraq war. You want facts? Go walk on any American street and ask any random person if they want the US to continue sending aid to Ukraine. They will tell you how that’s going to lower their grocery bill and taxes, that’s it.
With that being said, Trump is simply pulling the plug on something that has been going on for too long in the eyes of the American public. Hate the guy all you want, but you all need to look back at American history to see this isn’t the first time an American president felt pressure to do what the American public wants. Is it ugly for those involved in Ukraine? Sure, but America doesn’t really have a history of ending things with a nice pretty bow.
Can Ukraine survive without US aid? Sure, if EU *actually* cares enough. The reality is the EU has always had issues with Russia and has rarely ever been successful. Only time it’s been successful is with US involvement. If US wants out, I don’t see the EU further involving itself in something that the US won’t back anymore. Personal opinion is Ukraine falls to Russia and the EU introduces plans to protect itself. Poland’s military is growing strong enough to protect itself against an already exhausted Russia. Turkey maybe a big player down the road, but I don’t think to protect Ukraine this time.
The EU and NATO need to decide if they collectively will support Ukraine and each other without the US in the leadership role. I would imagine, yes. They perceive Putin as their biggest threat and will continue to supply Ukraine and beef up their military to be less dependent on the US.
If US completely pulls out, i.e. no intelligence sharing, no ammunition, no nothing, then unless EU steps up or China cuts down its connection to Russia, I don’t see how Ukraine won’t lose at least half of the land.
Since China isn’t really helping a lot with Russia, EU probably needs to step up.
He won’t be alone, he will have the European nations, Canada, etc. all the countries that are more decent and morally upright than we are right now.
I’d like to think there is somebody who could convince Trump to continue to support Ukraine but I’m not hopeful.
I think a lot depends on if US stays completely neutral or tries to sabotage any efforts for either side. If they specifically say “no more money being spent” and that’s it then there is scope for Europe etc. to step up. If they start cutting out supplying weaponary and dropping Russian sanctions then it’s going to be a tall order.
Ukraine is not fighting this alone!
Slava Ukraini
Its over for Ukraine. Trump said he gonna stop the war and he doesn’t care of the consequences this war is over
The thing I don’t get from the commenters is what do they think the outcome is going to be if you stick to status quo? Russia is slowly but relentlessly gaining ground. They have a huge advantage of population to absorb losses. And Putin seems to just ignore the pain he’s putting his country through. The well-wishers chant of “hang in there” is ignoring the fact that Ukraine is not just slowly losing the war, but losing an entire generation. Peace on Russia’s terms sucks. But consider the alternative outcome of continuing the conflict indefinitely. Ending it now will be bad for Ukraine. Keeping it going for more years will be much worse for Ukraine.
If you don’t agree, I ask again. What are you realistically expecting to happen as the alternative to accepting a crappy peace deal? ‘Cause I’m not seeing it.
I wouldnt bet on the EU here. The EU three years into war is not able to even remove its own esg regulation that prevents external financing of their own EU arms producers. they literally killing their own very poor arms production and till this day, despite lots of hey ho announcements, they have not removed this regulation. You want to rely on these people?
Finland, Poland, France, UK, Swedenand Germany could be formidable against Russia.
Europe and Ukraine can try anothe way out: if they are swift enough, turn to China and ask for help. Europe is increasing its military expenditure but nothing will come out within months, if not years. The process of Europe’s re-industrialization will take much longer time, which is a luxury that neither Europe or Ukraine can afford. But China has the world’s largest industrial production.
China has no particular interest in quartering Ukraine; she can gain nothing from it. However, if the war prolongs, China can expect more offering from Russia in Middle Asia. Middle Asia is another vital part in China’s geopolitical interest, anti-terrorism, natural gas pipes, uranium ores, you name it.
What Europe can offer for exchange? European Union is a big single market with much higher purchasing power. With some proper trade deals with China, it is very possible to convince China that collaboration with EU is much more profitable than with Russia. High-precision optical lens, EUV machines (at least certain critical technologies), alloys, EU has a lot of things that may interest China. Drop the stupid trade restrictions and be bold; if Europe really wants to save Ukraine, do whatever is necessary, even trade with the one you hate.
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