Mar 2, 2025
IndexBox has just published a new report: Africa – Petroleum Bitumen – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.
Driven by increasing demand for petroleum bitumen, the African market is expected to grow with a CAGR of +0.9% in volume and +2.1% in value from 2024 to 2035, reaching a market value of $2.9B by the end of the forecast period.
Market Forecast
Driven by increasing demand for petroleum bitumen in Africa, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.9% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 4.5M tons by the end of 2035.
In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.1% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $2.9B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.
ConsumptionAfrica’s Consumption of Petroleum Bitumen
After two years of decline, consumption of petroleum bitumen increased by 5% to 4.1M tons in 2024. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 4.5M tons. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of the consumption remained at a somewhat lower figure.
The revenue of the petroleum bitumen market in Africa rose significantly to $2.3B in 2024, growing by 7.5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption showed a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $2.4B. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of the market failed to regain momentum.
Consumption By Country
The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were Egypt (1.1M tons), Algeria (705K tons) and Morocco (646K tons), with a combined 59% share of total consumption. South Africa, Nigeria, Tunisia, Libya, Cote d’Ivoire, Togo and Kenya lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 29%.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Togo (with a CAGR of +14.1%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the largest petroleum bitumen markets in Africa were Egypt ($550M), South Africa ($372M) and Morocco ($315M), together accounting for 53% of the total market. Algeria, Nigeria, Kenya, Tunisia, Cote d’Ivoire, Togo and Libya lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 32%.
Among the main consuming countries, Togo, with a CAGR of +12.7%, saw the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
The countries with the highest levels of petroleum bitumen per capita consumption in 2024 were Morocco (17 kg per person), Algeria (15 kg per person) and Libya (12 kg per person).
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Togo (with a CAGR of +11.4%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
ProductionAfrica’s Production of Petroleum Bitumen
Petroleum bitumen production reached 1.7M tons in 2024, increasing by 1.9% compared with the previous year’s figure. Overall, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 when the production volume increased by 6.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production attained the peak volume at 1.7M tons in 2016; afterwards, it flattened through to 2024.
In value terms, petroleum bitumen production expanded slightly to $901M in 2024 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 11%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $1.1B. From 2015 to 2024, production growth remained at a lower figure.
Production By Country
The country with the largest volume of petroleum bitumen production was Egypt (711K tons), comprising approx. 41% of total volume. Moreover, petroleum bitumen production in Egypt exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, South Africa (339K tons), twofold. Morocco (239K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 14% share.
In Egypt, petroleum bitumen production expanded at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: South Africa (-0.2% per year) and Morocco (+0.8% per year).
ImportsAfrica’s Imports of Petroleum Bitumen
After two years of decline, supplies from abroad of petroleum bitumen increased by 7.9% to 2.6M tons in 2024. Overall, imports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 21%. As a result, imports attained the peak of 3.1M tons. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of imports remained at a lower figure.
In value terms, petroleum bitumen imports expanded remarkably to $1.6B in 2024. Over the period under review, imports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 57% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs in 2024 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.
Imports By Country
Algeria (568K tons), Morocco (407K tons), Egypt (353K tons) and South Africa (304K tons) represented roughly 63% of total imports in 2024. It was distantly followed by Nigeria (176K tons), mixing up a 6.8% share of total imports. Tunisia (92K tons), Togo (87K tons), Libya (66K tons), Kenya (64K tons) and Benin (56K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by Benin (with a CAGR of +37.6%), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, the largest petroleum bitumen importing markets in Africa were Nigeria ($321M), Algeria ($256M) and Morocco ($210M), with a combined 50% share of total imports. Egypt, South Africa, Benin, Togo, Tunisia, Kenya and Libya lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 32%.
In terms of the main importing countries, Benin, with a CAGR of +38.3%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Import Prices By Country
In 2024, the import price in Africa amounted to $606 per ton, increasing by 6.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the import price increased by 30%. The level of import peaked in 2024 and is likely to see steady growth in years to come.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Nigeria ($1,825 per ton), while Libya ($403 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Nigeria (+8.8%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
ExportsAfrica’s Exports of Petroleum Bitumen
Petroleum bitumen exports expanded remarkably to 218K tons in 2024, rising by 12% on the previous year. Over the period under review, exports, however, continue to indicate a deep downturn. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 when exports increased by 29%. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs at 443K tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, the exports remained at a lower figure.
In value terms, petroleum bitumen exports soared to $136M in 2024. In general, exports, however, showed a pronounced curtailment. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 with an increase of 51%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $354M. From 2015 to 2024, the growth of the exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.
Exports By Country
Cote d’Ivoire represented the key exporter of petroleum bitumen in Africa, with the volume of exports amounting to 130K tons, which was approx. 60% of total exports in 2024. South Africa (41K tons) took the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by Togo (11K tons), Tanzania (10K tons) and Senegal (9.9K tons). All these countries together took near 33% share of total exports. Djibouti (8.2K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.
From 2013 to 2024, average annual rates of growth with regard to petroleum bitumen exports from Cote d’Ivoire stood at +2.9%. At the same time, Tanzania (+21.8%) and Senegal (+4.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Tanzania emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in Africa, with a CAGR of +21.8% from 2013-2024. By contrast, Djibouti (-6.9%), South Africa (-9.8%) and Togo (-18.4%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Cote d’Ivoire (+36 p.p.), Tanzania (+4.5 p.p.), Djibouti (+3.8 p.p.) and Senegal (+3 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total exports from 2013-2024, the share of South Africa (-12.9 p.p.) and Togo (-20.1 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.
In value terms, the largest petroleum bitumen supplying countries in Africa were Cote d’Ivoire ($70M), South Africa ($40M) and Tanzania ($6.5M), with a combined 86% share of total exports.
In terms of the main exporting countries, Tanzania, with a CAGR of +19.4%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Export Prices By Country
The export price in Africa stood at $624 per ton in 2024, surging by 8.8% against the previous year. In general, the export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the export price increased by 37% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export prices reached the peak figure at $799 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, the export prices remained at a lower figure.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was South Africa ($988 per ton), while Djibouti ($418 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Africa (+7.0%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.