Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

Syria remains fragile. Now that the dust has settled, various armed groups (including Assad regime loyalists) have risen from the ashes after regrouping. For now, these are fairly isolated armed engagements, but are worth monitoring.

The U.S. is said to be considering (according to Reuters sources) a plan to ask its allies to stop and inspect Iranian oil tankers. The U.S. plan would have allies stop Iranian tankers passing through key chokepoints such as the Malacca Strait off Malaysia. The enactment of this plan would likely result in Iranian retaliation in the Persian Gulf. We can expect any movement on this to lead to significant (but brief) volatility, as it has in the past.

Iraq-Iraqi Kurdistan export talks ended this week without any resolution, leaving Kurdish oil stranded indefinitely. The three parties to the talks–Iraq, Iraqi Kurdistan (KRG) and Turkey–were quick to say that a new round of talks was expected next week, but no one’s holding their breath. The talks were to finally restart crude exports from Iraqi Kurdistan, which had been offline over disputes about export rights and the federal budget, as well as over Turkey’s receipt of Kurdish oil that bypassed the Iraqi federal government. Baghdad has won this war, but it’s getting greedy now. The talks failed because Baghdad suddenly suggested it might export Basra oil from southern Iraq through the Turkey Ceyhan port. This will be seen as a major insult to…

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

Syria remains fragile. Now that the dust has settled, various armed groups (including Assad regime loyalists) have risen from the ashes after regrouping. For now, these are fairly isolated armed engagements, but are worth monitoring.

The U.S. is said to be considering (according to Reuters sources) a plan to ask its allies to stop and inspect Iranian oil tankers. The U.S. plan would have allies stop Iranian tankers passing through key chokepoints such as the Malacca Strait off Malaysia. The enactment of this plan would likely result in Iranian retaliation in the Persian Gulf. We can expect any movement on this to lead to significant (but brief) volatility, as it has in the past.

Iraq-Iraqi Kurdistan export talks ended this week without any resolution, leaving Kurdish oil stranded indefinitely. The three parties to the talks–Iraq, Iraqi Kurdistan (KRG) and Turkey–were quick to say that a new round of talks was expected next week, but no one’s holding their breath. The talks were to finally restart crude exports from Iraqi Kurdistan, which had been offline over disputes about export rights and the federal budget, as well as over Turkey’s receipt of Kurdish oil that bypassed the Iraqi federal government. Baghdad has won this war, but it’s getting greedy now. The talks failed because Baghdad suddenly suggested it might export Basra oil from southern Iraq through the Turkey Ceyhan port. This will be seen as a major insult to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). The KRG was exporting its oil via pipeline to Turkey’s Ceyhan port. While it remains unclear, it appears that Baghdad is now suggesting it will make nice with the Turks by giving them Basra oil and cutting the Kurds out.  

Discovery & Development 

VAALCO Energy (NYSE: EGY) has secured a 70% operating stake in Côte d’Ivoire’s offshore CI-705 block, marking an aggressive push into the prolific Tano Basin. The company is committing $3M for entry, with a 100% paying interest through a commercial carry structure, partnering with Ivory Coast Exploration Oil & Gas SAS and PETROCI. The 2,300 km² block sits west of VAALCO’s existing CI-40 acreage and ENI’s Calao discovery, with initial studies targeting both oil and gas prospects. VAALCO plans seismic reprocessing and up to two exploration wells, banking on favorable geology, existing infrastructure, and strong regional demand to drive future returns.

Equinor (NYSE: EQNR) and partners Okea and Pandion Energy have uncovered a 19-44 MMboe gas and condensate discovery at the Mistral Sør exploration well in the Norwegian Sea. The find, located near the Åsgard and Kristin fields, sits in a well-developed area with existing gas infrastructure, making commercialization more viable. With European gas demand remaining strong, Equinor continues prioritizing high-return oil and gas projects over renewables, reinforcing Norway’s role as a key supplier post-Russian supply disruptions. Gassco reports Norway’s 2024 gas exports hit record levels, with volumes expected to stay near historic highs.

CNOOC (HKG: 0883) has made a major gas discovery at the Weizhou 10-5 oil and gas field in the Beibu Gulf basin, central Bohai Sea, at 30 meters water depth. The WZ10-5-1Sa exploration well, drilled to 4,840 meters TD, encountered a 283-meter oil and gas pay zone, yielding 13.2 MMscfd of gas and 800 b/d of oil during testing. The prospect further strengthens CNOOC’s South China Sea resource base. 

Union Jack Oil’s Moccasin 1-13 well in Oklahoma is officially a commercial discovery, flowing oil with no formation water and minimal gas—exactly what investors want to hear. The company has locked in permanent production facilities and is already selling crude, setting the stage for steady cash flow. With a 45% working interest, Union Jack sees this as just the beginning, eyeing more drilling in the region.

Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) has officially launched a major oil and gas exploration tender, the first since 2008, covering both onshore and offshore blocks. The bid round spans a massive 235,247 km², with 128,714 km² on land and 106,533 km² offshore, attracting participation from key international players, including Türkiye’s TPAO. With abundant hydrocarbon reserves and renewed interest from foreign firms, this round could be a turning point for Libya’s upstream sector.

Mergers & Acquisitions

ADNOC and Austria’s OMV are merging their polyolefin businesses, Borouge and Borealis, to create Borouge Group International, a new $60 billion petrochemical powerhouse. The combined entity, which will be headquartered in Vienna and listed in Abu Dhabi, will also acquire Canada’s Nova Chemicals for $13.4 billion, expanding its North American footprint. ADNOC and OMV will each hold 47% stakes, with the rest in free float, and expect $500 million in annual cost savings from the deal. The merger cements Abu Dhabi’s ambitions in the global chemicals sector and positions Borouge Group as the world’s fourth-largest polyolefins producer.

Petro-Victory Energy has struck a $17.5 million deal to acquire Capixaba Energia, gaining four oil fields in the Espírito Santo basin and two exploration blocks near major producers. The acquisition, backed entirely by Blue Oak Investments, positions Petro-Victory as the operator, with its equity stake growing to 50% upon reaching production milestones. Capixaba currently produces 400 boe/d (88% oil), with a workover and drilling campaign planned to boost output significantly over the next 12-18 months. This move solidifies Espírito Santo as a strategic growth hub, complementing Petro-Victory’s existing assets across 257,604 acres in Brazil.

Evolution Petroleum (NYSE American: EPM) has announced a $9 million acquisition of non-operated oil and natural gas assets across New Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana, adding 440 BOEPD to its production base. The deal, set to close by Q3 2025, aligns with the company’s strategy of stable, low-decline production, with a 60% oil and 40% natural gas mix. The acquisition is expected to be immediately accretive, with a multiple of ~2.8x adjusted EBITDA over the next 12 months.