Russia Is Losing the War of Attrition

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1. Phillips Payson O’Brien and Eliot A. Cohen: “Prior to the war, the intelligence community, political leaders, and many students of the Russian military concluded that Russia would easily overrun Ukraine militarily—that Kyiv would fall in a few days and that Ukraine itself could be conquered in weeks. We should consider that failure as we assess the certainty of Vance and those who think like him.

   “Wars are rarely won so decisively, because attrition is not only a condition of war, but a strategic choice. Smaller powers can, through the intelligent application of attrition, succeed in advancing their own goals. This is particularly true if, like Ukraine, they can exploit technological change and get the most from outside support and allies. Vietnam was outgunned by the United States, as the American colonies were once outgunned by the British empire. Iranian forces outnumbered those of Iraq during a long and brutal war in the 1980s, and lost nonetheless.

   “The pessimistic analysis has not paid nearly enough attention to the weak underpinnings of Russian military power. Russia’s economy, as often noted, is struggling with interest rates that have topped 20 percent amid soaring inflation, and with manpower shortages made critical by the war. Its condition is dire, as one study noted, partly because the military budget amounts to 40 percent of all public spending, and partly because oil revenue is taking a hit from lower prices, Ukrainian attacks, and tightening sanctions.

   “Russian weakness is particularly visible in the army … One recent study by Chatham House asserts that the Russian military-industrial complex is ‘ill adapted to deal with the effects of a prolonged war against Ukraine or to achieve a sustainable future in terms of production, innovation and development’ … The same holds true for Russian manpower …”

   “Despite American reluctance to provide further aid, Ukraine’s European friends can make a significant difference even though they cannot simply replace what the U.S. has been providing … One should not underestimate the depth of technological and intelligence resources available from Europe and sympathetic Asian countries, should they mobilize. The United States has stinted its aid until now, but Ukraine itself and its European allies are filling the gaps.

   “Ukraine is not on the verge of collapse, and it is Russia, not Ukraine, that is losing the attritional war, which makes the Trump administration’s decisions particularly shortsighted and tragic. Ukraine has plenty of cards, even if Trump and Vance cannot see them. If America’s leaders could only bring themselves to put pressure on Russia comparable to what they put on Ukraine, they could help Ukraine achieve something much more like a win.”

   Read more here: [https://theatln.tc/qGnC93rH](https://theatln.tc/qGnC93rH)

2. It is the reason for Trump’s help

3. pure cope, they’re both fucked

4. I remember this news article from 3 years ago!

5. This is pure wishful thinking. You keep telling yourselves that Ukraine has a chance, but reality says otherwise. Ukraine is running out of resources, losing Western support, and stuck in a strategic deadlock.

   1. Industry alone doesn’t win wars. Yes, Europe has a bigger economy than Russia—so what? That only helps if it’s quickly and efficiently turned into weapons production. It’s not. Europe’s defense industry is slow, bureaucracy delays everything, and deliveries are often too late or too small. Meanwhile, Russia is producing weapons 24/7 and getting supplies from North Korea and Iran.

   2. Western support is fading. The U.S. is divided, Europe is struggling economically, and war fatigue is setting in. If Trump becomes president again, say goodbye to major U.S. aid. Even now, Republicans are hesitating to approve more billions. Ukraine doesn’t have unlimited time—Russia does.

   3. Manpower and material: Russia has the long game. Russia has three times Ukraine’s population and can afford losses that would be disastrous for Ukraine. Moscow has a fully mobilized war economy, while Kyiv is barely holding on. Wars of attrition always favor the side with more resources—and that’s Russia.

   4. The front lines are barely moving—and when they do, it’s in Russia’s favor. Ukraine’s big counteroffensive failed, and Russia is slowly pushing back. Ukraine is running out of artillery, troops are exhausted, and they lack air superiority. They have fewer and fewer tools to turn this war around.

   Your entire narrative is based on the hope that “the West just needs to do enough.” But the reality is: the West won’t do enough, and Ukraine won’t be able to sustain this war in the long run. It’s only a matter of time.

6. Do they expect people to believe this propaganda? It’s illogical.

   And these authors are talking about the Luftwaffe and 1918 as if it’s relevant.

7. What we really need to see is Western Europe France Germany all the Nordic States Barrel in and Crush Russia

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