Ukraine Agrees To Immediate 30-Day Ceasefire

8 comments

1. Ukraine is playing this game very well. Lets see what Russia does. Lets see what America does. This puts a huge spotlight on the stupid statements previously made by America that Ukraine was difficult to work, enabling WW3 and not wanting peace.

2. I am assuming it is not a coincidence that this has been agreed to at the exact same time the Trump White House has decided to “restore” intelligence sharing with Ukraine. And — whoops! — Russia “has yet to accept the deal.”

3. Not sure Russia will agree yet. They are in a heavy fight trying to retake Kursk (and doing decently at it) once they recapture that maybe, or maybe they agree regardless since Trump will want to appear as the peace deal president at some point.

4. There is absolutely no way Putin is going to accept a ceasefire, not until Kursk is recaptured, and even then its unlikely. But not agreeing, or agreeing and then breaking it, will certainly piss off Trump. (and by extension the Saudis, who feel probably very proud about being the Broker here)

   But I just dont think they have the time for that, Ukraine will use every second of a Ceasefire to dig in, resupply and rest their troops. The only way for Putin out of this is a decisive win on the Battlefield and a friendly Government in Kyiv, anything else will ensure another conflict sooner than later.

5. Is there any info on the terms besides what’s in the article (cease fire, us resumes intelligence aid.)

   I find it hard to believe that this is all Trump asked for, given his previous demands to basically give Russia everything it wants.

6. This is the easy part. What’s tough is what will come next.

   Ultimately Ukraine is going to have to give up (de jure) territory which is going to be extremely hard.

   Russia is going to have to accept nato troops in the form of EU troops acting as peace keepers but ultimately firmly on the side of Ukraine right on their border….which is going to be extremely hard.

   How trump squares this circle is going to be fascinating.

7. It is hard to imagine Russia would go for this. They have said pretty consistently they are not interested in another agreement that just gives time to Ukraine to rearm. They have the negotiating power and the momentum in the war so I would imagine they will continue to push on until they get some type of agreement that would be worth considering. That will probably have to look like something that was almost agreed to in Istanbul, but even more favorable to Russia at this point.

8. 30 days isn’t a long period, and does seem like a good way to put a lot of pressure on Trump and Rubio to make good on their claims. They’ve been blustering pretty heavily about being able to bring the Russians to the table, something supposedly their predecessors were too “weak” to do. Now they have to demonstrate they can actually do that. I suspect they’re going to discover that desperately sucking up to the Russians doesn’t actually mean they’re interested in giving anything back. They’re the assets here, not Putin.

   And with Europe relatively on Zelensky’s side, it’ll be hard for America to force a negotiated outcome that the Russians want, which is basically a total Ukrainian surrender on the territories they’ve lost and presumably more.

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