Mar 12, 2025
The annual oil and gas conference in Houston has exuded optimism about the industry’s prospects under the Trump administration, though some traders voice caution. According to Bloomberg, leading figures such as Vitol and Gunvor express concerns that the current market conditions could drive a decrease in crude prices as supply surges past demand. While OPEC+ has increased output, and U.S. and South American production expand, the fear is palpable among major players.
Gunvor Group Chairman Torbjorn Tornqvist highlights the issue of overproduction both inside and outside OPEC, stating, “We are drilling more inside and outside OPEC than demand growth warrants.” This sentiment is echoed by other industry leaders at the CERAWeek conference.
Russian crude flows have risen significantly, with output increasing by about 300,000 barrels a day in early March. Meanwhile, U.S. trade policies threaten domestic economic growth, affecting demand. Vitol’s CEO Russell Hardy projects a price range for oil between $60 and $80 a barrel, suggesting a shift from recent years. Gunvor indicates that WTI prices might even fall below $60 temporarily.
Despite potential declines, multiple factors could stabilize the market. Measures by the Trump administration against Iranian oil and pressures on Venezuelan supply offer some market support. Furthermore, expectations of a slowdown in U.S. production growth, particularly in shale, could mitigate the downtrend.
If oil prices remain below $60 per barrel, the growth of U.S. shale output could stagnate or decrease. Trafigura chief economist Saad Rahim affirms this view by noting that a $60 threshold may not sustain much of the industry.
Overall, despite the fluctuations, global oil inventories remain low, according to IndexBox data. This rarity sustains a time-spread backwardation, beneficial for spot positions. Gunvor’s Tornqvist concedes that mechanisms exist to prevent considerable price falls. Nevertheless, Trump’s variable tariff policies contribute to uncertainty in market expectations.
Scott Sheffield, a pioneer in the shale industry, predicts prices in the $50s, urging caution in future planning.
This report provides an in-depth analysis of the crude oil market in the U.S.. Within it, you will discover the latest data on market trends and opportunities by country, consumption, production and price developments, as well as the global trade (imports and exports). The forecast exhibits the market prospects through 2030.
Product coverage:Country coverage:Data coverage:Market volume and valuePer Capita consumptionForecast of the market dynamics in the medium termTrade (exports and imports) in the U.S.Export and import pricesMarket trends, drivers and restraintsKey market players and their profilesReasons to buy this report:Take advantage of the latest dataFind deeper insights into current market developmentsDiscover vital success factors affecting the market
This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, and wholesalers, as well as for investors, consultants and advisors.
In this report, you can find information that helps you to make informed decisions on the following issues:
How to diversify your business and benefit from new market opportunitiesHow to load your idle production capacityHow to boost your sales on overseas marketsHow to increase your profit marginsHow to make your supply chain more sustainableHow to reduce your production and supply chain costsHow to outsource production to other countriesHow to prepare your business for global expansion
While doing this research, we combine the accumulated expertise of our analysts and the capabilities of artificial intelligence. The AI-based platform, developed by our data scientists, constitutes the key working tool for business analysts, empowering them to discover deep insights and ideas from the marketing data.
1. INTRODUCTION
Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business
REPORT DESCRIPTION
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND AI PLATFORM
DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS
2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A Quick Overview of Market Performance
KEY FINDINGS
MARKET TRENDS
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3. MARKET OVERVIEW
Understanding the Current State of The Market and Its Prospects
MARKET SIZE
MARKET STRUCTURE
TRADE BALANCE
PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION
MARKET FORECAST TO 2030
4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCT
Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business
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TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
MOST CONSUMED PRODUCT
MOST TRADED PRODUCT
MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCT FOR EXPORT
5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES
Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain
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TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES
6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS
Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Exports
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TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
UNSATURATED MARKETS
TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS
7. PRODUCTION
The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry
PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE
8. IMPORTS
The Largest Import Supplying Countries
IMPORTS FROM 2012–2024
IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
9. EXPORTS
The Largest Destinations for Exports
EXPORTS FROM 2012–2024
EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS
The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles
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LIST OF TABLES
Key Findings In 2024
Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
Market Value, 2012–2024
Per Capita Consumption In 2012-2024
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
Import Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2012–2024
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
Export Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2012–2024
LIST OF FIGURES
Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
Market Value, 2012–2024
Market Structure – Domestic Supply vs. Imports, In Physical Terms, 2012-2024
Market Structure – Domestic Supply vs. Imports, In Value Terms, 2012-2024
Trade Balance, In Physical Terms, 2012-2024
Trade Balance, In Value Terms, 2012-2024
Per Capita Consumption, 2012-2024
Market Volume Forecast to 2030
Market Value Forecast to 2030
Products: Market Size And Growth, By Type
Products: Average Per Capita Consumption, By Type
Products: Exports And Growth, By Type
Products: Export Prices And Growth, By Type
Production Volume And Growth
Exports And Growth
Export Prices And Growth
Market Size And Growth
Per Capita Consumption
Imports And Growth
Import Prices
Production, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
Production, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
Imports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
Imports, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
Import Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2012–2024
Exports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
Exports, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
Export Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2012–2024