Will Trump defend Taiwan? U.S. defense perimeter appears to shrink

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1. Following the confirmation hearing of Elbridge Colby to be undersecretary of defense for policy, there is a discussion in Washington over where the U.S. defense perimeter lies under the Trump administration. Colby’s statement that Taiwan is not an “existential” interest has led to some analysts to note that the perimeter now stops with Japan and South Korea — leaving the question of Taiwan ambiguous.

   While Colby is but the Pentagon’s third-ranking official, he is considered a key intellectual in the Trump team. In announcing the nomination in December, President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that Colby is “a highly respected advocate for our ‘America First’ foreign and defense policy.”

   “I believe the costs of explicitly committing to Taiwan’s defense outweigh its benefits,” Colby said in a written statement to the hearing.

   While acknowledging Taiwan falling to China by force would constitute “a severe blow” to American interests, Colby said going further than the current policy of declaring that the U.S. has deep interests in Taiwan’s security “poses serious risks on a number of fronts,” such as inflaming relations with Beijing and offering a pretext for military action.

   Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, said there is a disagreement in Washington on where America’s line of defense should be.

   “There are some that would say it’s Taiwan. There are others, like me, who would say Japan is the line. And there are others who are much, much more restrained and say that the homeland is the line,” she said.

   “Some countries, based on their geography and economic and military power, are inherently more important than others,” Grieco added. “The countries that matter most to the regional balance of power are the major Asian industrial powers, like the United States, China, Japan, India and South Korea. Some countries in Southeast Asia, like Singapore, are also important because of their geography. Taiwan fails to pass this test.”

   “The United States would prefer that China not seize it, but if the worst happened, it would still be possible to preserve the regional balance of power,” she said.

2. Yes. A brutal fact of American politics is that interests are material, not idyllic. Trump is wavering on Ukraine because they do not provide a material interest to the United States, at least not without the proposed mineral deal. Taiwan provides the single most precious product on Earth, losing it is more than just something to be sad about, it’s an economic and military catastrophe.

3. Perhaps Taiwan need to commit to moving their tech industry to Texas before their sovereignty becomes relevant to the administration.

4. FYI.. Musk told SpaceX to move production out of Taiwan a week after the election.

   He’s gonna give Taiwan to Xi. Probably the cost of Chinese support in the election

5. We can’t be sure he’d defend Guam at this point.

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